X-Message-Number: 23264
From: "Aschwin de Wolf" <>
Subject: Immortality and Risk Aversion
Date: Thu, 15 Jan 2004 12:23:12 -0500

Libertarian economist Tyler Cowen on Immortality and Risk Aversion:



http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2004/01/would_potential.html

Would potential immortals be risk-averse?

Anti-aging drugs appear closer on the horizon, but how would a fountain of
youth change our behavior? Lawrence Solum asks whether potential immortals
would be afraid to ever put their lives at risk:

"Given eternally long lives, the real issue concerns taking risks...So the
question becomes, "Would it be rational to engage in regular low-risk
behaviors (like daily walking), given that over the course of an eternal
life, death would be the almost certain consequence?" One might imagine that
in the beginning, such behaviors would continue, but that over time one
would begin to realize that the odds were catching up with friends, family,
and co-workers. Would the loss of eternal life really be a greater cost than
the loss of the current human span of several decades? If the answer to this
question were yes, then perhaps most humans would began to avoid risk. A
very cautious approach to life might add tens of thousands of years to one's
anticipated life span. I have an image of fine restaraunts serving only
minced food to avoid the small (but statistically significant) risk of
choking. No roller-skating, no skiing, no contact sports, no flying on
airplances, no boating, no swimming. Would the eternal life lived to
minimize risk be a recognizably human life?"

Update: An astute reader notes that in contemporary vampire fiction, ancient
vampires are generally potrayed as extremely risk averse--employing proxies
when personal action in accord with their conception of the good (the bad?)
would involve a significant risk to their immortality.

A related question is whether immortals would be less ambitious, since they
might always feel they could accomplish their goals in a more distant
future. As long as we are citing fiction, I recall seeing a television show
about immortal beings. They were content to remain homeless and spent most
of their time sitting around a campfire and talking. They accumulated few
possessions. They never feared such a course of action would lead to death,
and they always held the option of trying to do more.


Solum's query was prompted by a Volokh Conspiracy post of mine. I asked the
different question of whether an immortal is necessarily a murderer with a
probability approaching one, given the recurring risk of accidents.

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