X-Message-Number: 2358
From: 
Subject: CRYONICS Earthquake Risk Update
Date: Wed, 21 Jul 93 02:10:13 PDT

From:  Derek Ryan
To:  Alcor members
Re:  Earthquake risk in Riverside

In the ongoing discussion regarding Alcor's impending move to
Scottsdale, the issue of earthquake risk has come up repeatedly.
Many of those who oppose the current building have voiced the
opinion that the earthquake risk today is not sufficiently
greater than in the past to warrant haste in moving, particularly
in moving to this building.

I disagree with this opinion.  The Los Angeles Times ran their
story re the revised odds for the Big One, (50% likelihood of an
8 Richter or greater quake centered in Riverside-San Bernardino
counties in next 5 years) nearly a year ago.  As noted by Steve
Bridge, this means that, in effect, we've already rolled the dice
with a 14% chance once.  Surely no one will argue that *another*
roll with those odds is a good idea.

For those who would suggest that we simply "earthquake-proof"
Alcor as much as possible, take the risk of staying here longer,
and wait for a better deal, I offer the following excerpts from
an article which appeared in today's Riverside Press-Enterprise.
(I have not included the entire article due to its length, and
have elected simply to include the sections relevant to Riverside
and San Bernardino, i.e., *us*.)


>*Computers Draw Bleak Post-Quake Picture of Region*
>By Gary Polakovic
>From the July 20, 1993 edition of the *Riverside Press
>Enterprise*

>A giant earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault could
>destroy much of downtown San Bernardino, cause heavy loss of life
>in coastal Los Angeles County and push tens of thousands of
>Riverside-San Bernardino area residents into the streets as
>homeless quake refugees, according to preliminary new estimates
>prepared for state emergency officials.

>After a three-year investigation, the California Office of
>Emergency Services is nearing completion of a stark forecast
>titled, "Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Southern
>California."  Researchers are using a powerful new breed of
>sophisticated computer programs developed to more precisely
>predict quake damage.

>Excerpts of the study disclosed yesterday provide a detailed,
>albeit chilling, picture of the injuries and property losses
>Southern Californians can expect in the aftermath of a magnitude
>8.3 quake scientists predict for the mighty San Andreas--a
>disaster known as the Big One.

>Riverside and San Bernardino counties would be especially hard
>hit.  For example, hundreds of buildings in downtown San

>collapse throughout at least 70 percent of a structure, explained
>Ronald T. Eguchi, vice president of Irvine-based EQE
>International, the nation's largest earthquake engineering
>consulting company and the firm contracted by the state emergency
>office to help prepare the report.

>Up to 170,000 Riverside-San Bernardino area residents--half the
>number of people expected to be displaced in Southern California
>following a major quake--could be left homeless for a prolonged
>period.  About one out of every 11 dwellings in Riverside County
>could be too damaged to occupy, Eguchi said.


Even if we "earthquake-proof" the facility, even if the building
suffers no damage, even if none of the staff members are injured,
and even if none of the staff members' dwellings are damaged, I
have to wonder just what kind of place Riverside will be
following the quake, and how much good our "earthquake-proofing
might do us then.  This is not something I'd like to find out.

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