X-Message-Number: 23963
From: "michaelprice" <>
References: <>
Subject: How long do you think we've got till. . . 
Date: Fri, 23 Apr 2004 09:26:31 +0100

Mike Read asks:
> 1.  How many years from now do you think we will defeat
> aging/death?
>
> 2.  How many years from now do you think we will achieve
> technology that will allow us to revive and restore to health
> people who are currently in biostatis?

If by defeating death/aging we mean reversing aging, i.e. true rejuvenation,
then these two issues are really the same problem, since aging and
the damage due to cryosuspension are forms of biological entropy.

Reversing biological entropy will require full-blown molecular technology
(AKA nanotechnology) and controlling super-human intelligence -
i.e. after the Vinge-style Singularity, traditionally dated at c2030.
Allowing a couple of decades for post-Singularity progress, I would
guess these problems will be fixed by 2050.

However in the meantime there's a lot we can do to increase our chances
of living to 2050 and thence forever.  There's good evidence that we can
already halve the rate of aging with dietary supplements;  Megadoses of
vitamin B5 have extended lifespans in mammals by 20%, and vitamin B6
by 11+%.  Extra dietary RNA extended lifespan by 16%.  If this is
additive in combination (which it is in fruitflies, but not yet tested in
mammals), then this should see most of us through to 2050.  Minerals
such as selenium and chromium and others also look promising.
Have a look at http://mcp.longevity-report.com for a more detailed analysis
of this claim.

Some references
[1a] The Use of Drosophila Melanogaster as a Screening Agent for Longevity
Factors. I.  Pantothenic Acid as a Longevity Factor in Royal Jelly.  Thomas
S Gardner, Journal of Gerontology 1(3) (1948): 1-8.

[1b] The Use of Drosophila Melanogaster as a Screening Agent for Longevity
Factors. II.  The Effects of Biotin, Pyridoxine, Sodium Yeast Nucleate, and
Pantothenic Acid on the Life Span of the Fruit Fly.  Thomas S Gardner,
Journal of Gerontology 1(3) (1948): 9-13

[2a] The Effect of Yeast Nucleic Acid on the Survival Time of 600-Day-Old
Albino Mice.  Thomas S Gardner, Journal of Gerontology 3(?) (1946): 445-452.
This reproduces the work of Robertson2b on lifelong administration of
nucleic acid enriched diets, at a lower dosage.

[2b] Influence of Nucleic Acids of Various Origin upon the Growth and
Longevity of the white mouse.  TB Robertson in the Australian J of
Experimental Biology and Medical Science, 5, (1928): 46-67
16% mean life span extension.  Maximum lifespan (last 10%) extended by
approximately 8-16%.

[3] Effect of pantothenic acid on the longevity of mice.  Richard B Pelton
and Roger J Williams in Proceedings of the Society Experimental Biology &
Medicine 99 632-633, 1958.  Mean lifespan extension of 19.5%.  No maximum
lifespan data reported.

[4] How to re-energise old mitochondria without shooting yourself in the
foot.  Driver C, Georgiou A in Biogerontology 2002;3(1-2):103-6  PMID:
12014827
Nicotinamide at 250mg/L of food medium increased mean lifespan in drosophila
by 15%. (Private communication: Maximum lifespan (last 10%) also increased.)

[5a] Composition and Biological Activity of Chromium-Pyridine Carboxylate
Complexes.  GW Evans and DJ Pouchnik, Journal of Inorganic Biochemistry 49,
pg 177-187 (1993).   PMID: 8433089
Describes the action of dietary chromium picolinate (relative to chromium
chloride and chromium nicotinate) in reducing glycation & plasma glucose
levels in rats as they aged.

[5b] Longevity effect of chromium picolinate--'rejuvenation' of hypothalamic
function?  McCarty MF in Med Hypotheses 1994 Oct;43(4):253-65   PMID:
7838011
"The first rodent longevity study with the insulin-sensitizing nutrient
chromium picolinate has reported a dramatic increase in both median and
maximal lifespan.."   Gives additional information about the
Evans-Meyer-Pouchnik chromium picolinate experiment on rats:  Cohort maximum
lifespan (last survivor) was 48 months, extending the previous species
maximum by 15%.

[5c] Chromium picolinate increases longevity.  Evans GW, Meyer LK in AGE
(the Journal of the American Aging Association) Oct 1992; 15(4), 134.

[5d] Chromium Picolinate.  Gary W Evans, (1996)  ISBN 0895299119.  Gives
additional information about the Evans-Meyer-Pouchnik chromium picolinate
experiment on rats:  Mean lifespan extension of 27%  However, the strain of
rats used may have been pre-diabetic.

[5e] The Longevity Factor: Chromium Picolinate.  RA Passwater, (1993), ISBN
0879836199.

[6] Favorable Effects of Pyridoxine HCl on the aging process.  Lindseth K,
Dictor M & Miquel J in AGE 5(4), 143, 1982.  Late middle-age intervention
gave mean total lifespan extension of 11%.  No maximum lifespan data
reported.

[7c] Selenium and tellurium in mice. Effects on growth, survival, and
tumors.  Schroeder HA, Mitchener M in Arch Environ Health. 1972 Jan; 24(1):
66-71.  PMID: 4500615.
The dose used (3ppm) was toxic (carcinogenic); despite this the mean LS was
extended by 8% (selenate), 16% (selenite), the maximum cohort LS by -4%
(selenate), 33% (selenite).  For selenite the ratio of max cohort LS /
control mean LS was 2.46.  (cf: control max/mean LS = 1.845) Tellurite
(chemically similar  to selenite) also extended mean (4%) and max LS (41%).
The controls received 60ug/kg selenium / diet wet weight

[7d] Selenium and tellurium in rats: effect on growth, survival and tumors.
Schroeder HA, Mitchener M in J Nutr. 1971 Nov; 101(11): 1531-40  PMID:
5124041.  The dose used (3ppm) was toxic (carcinogenic); despite this the
mean LS was extended with selenate by 9%, maximum cohort LS by 48%.
(Selenite at 3ppm was highly toxic and not pursued.)  The ratio of max
cohort LS / control mean LS was 2.25.  (cf: control max/mean LS = 1.52) The
controls received 50ug/kg selenium / diet wet weight

Cheers,
Michael C Price
http://mcp.longevity-report.com
http://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm

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