X-Message-Number: 24084
From: "Aschwin de Wolf" <>
References: <>
Subject: Re: cryonics and probability
Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 08:28:17 -0400

> The data I have seen posted on the cryonet and also on the web is fairly
> depressing with regard to the potential of reanimation one day.
Considering all
> the components going into the formula it would appear that the chances of
there
> being a real possibility of it coming to fruition seems to border on the
side
> of chaos taking us all down.

The question is how these writers asign their probabilities in the first
place. Many components are not independent  (I can think of very few
independent probabilities in cryonics) and by multiplying them one will end
up with a very low number of course! It may also make sense to distinguish
between technical and social issues and what an individual can influence and
not. The probability we'll get a good suspension is not completely beyond
our control, the probability that our cryonics provider still exists etc.

> Are there any recent data or analyses that discuss the chances in a more
> positive light.

http://www.cryonics.org/probability.html

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