X-Message-Number: 24089 Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 13:18:36 -0700 (PDT) From: Jeff Davis <> Subject: SUCCESS IS (still) A NEAR CERTAINTY In Message #24083, Thoughts on Probability, laments: "The data I have seen ... is fairly depressing with regard to the potential of reanimation one day." And asks after something that might "discuss the chances in a more positive light." Glad to help out Mike. Here's my 'take' on the odds: Based solely on technical feasibility, SUCCESS IS A NEAR CERTAINTY. That is, if humanity or its intelligent decendants don't dissappear due to misadventure or ennui, then restoration from suspension looks like nearly a sure thing. For the details as to how I reached this 'assessment', check out my 28 Aug 1998 post at: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/dsp.cgi?msg=10333 ------------------------ Regarding the habitual bleat of pessimism: In Message #19720, wrote: "Just pointing out (like you did) that most of us are simply playing the odds ($50k for a 1 in a million shot at extending our lifespan vs. a ZERO % chance) goes a long way to showing we aren't faith based, at the most, we can be accused of betting on long shots, however the payout is MUCH bigger than the Preakness longshot winner." When I read this, I once again heaved that big, burdensome sigh of disappointment. The recalcitrant and pernicious "long shot" meme again. The more's the pity since we have the means--analytical deconstruction followed by memeabrasion--to beat back this nettlesome little abscess of an idea. People go around believing, and exasperatingly repeating the 'long shot' nonsense, people who should know better, who call themselves 'thoughtful' and 'rationalist' and--worst of all--***SUPPORTERS*** (!!!???) of cryonics. With friends like these... They repeat it for no other reason than that prejudiced and equally ill-informed and uncritical folks before them have engraved memetic ruts of wrongheadedness into the language centers of their-- and larger society's--brain. So that, sadly, whenever they think or speak of matters cryonic, the wheels of thought and speech drop, all innocent and habitual, into that timeworn rut, with nary a moments pause to reflect on what is factual and what is garbage-in- garbage-out. Cryofolk owe it to themselves to rise above monkey-hear-monkey-speak. The MHMS method of probability assessment is--pardon my French--pure crap. -------------------------------------- Best, Jeff Davis "Our father was not a religious man. The faith that many people place in God, we place in science and other human endeavors." John Henry and Claudia Williams __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Win a $20,000 Career Makeover at Yahoo! HotJobs http://hotjobs.sweepstakes.yahoo.com/careermakeover Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=24089