X-Message-Number: 24104
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: Re: Oil crisis - what crisis?
Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 07:35:02 -0700

In Message # 24102, Michael Price writes,

>Have a look at the slides in: 
>http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3623549.stm about world oil 
>reserves. In particular, look at slide #2, in the slide show: "How long 
>will it last? The short answer is no-one knows, but even the oil industry 
>suspects the world "peak" is now approaching. It says it has 40 years of 
>proven reserves at the moment - but it also said that 30 years ago. In 
>fact, the estimate has actually increased in recent years as production has 
>fallen. Cutting consumption would prolong oil's life."

According to the graphs accompanying the article  Brace yourself for the end 
of cheap oil  in the August 2, 2003 issue of New Scientist, various 
estimates over the years of total world oil reserves  -- that is, all the 
oil thought to have been in the ground before people started pumping it out 
in the latter 19th Century -- have converged around the figure of 2 trillion 
barrels.  This figure hasn t budged since the 1960 s, belying the claim that 
known oil reserves are increasing. (Shell Oil s stock recently depreciated 
after the company had to reduce its public oil reserves estimates by 20%.) 
The sizes of new oil discoveries peaked in the 1960 s as well. Humanity has 
already extracted and used nearly 1 trillion barrels of oil, but that was 
the easy stuff. The oil on the downward slope of the supply curve will yield 
a rapidly declining  energy returned on energy invested  (EROEI). Oil from 
seemingly bountiful but unconventional deposits like Albertan oil sands or 
oil shale has a break-even or worse EROEI, meaning that it is practically 
pseudoscientific to postulate it as a source of energy, almost like 
investing in a perpetual motion machine. The New Scientist article is 
available on the Web only to subscribers, but I can email you the graph upon 
request.

Setting aside the oil depletion issue, cryonicists who deanimate are still 
threatened by the need for rapid cooling and perfusion to minimize brain 
damage, no matter where they live. A would-be cryonaut who dies outside of 
North America, even if refrigerated, will suffer severe and probably 
irreparable neurological compromise in case a disruption in the supply of 
jet fuel keeps him from flying to his cryonics services provider in a timely 
manner. Consider that the current dollar price of oil incorporates a 
 security premium  of about 25 percent, implying that the market has reached 
the consensus that the supply coming from the Persian Gulf is at risk 
because of the political mess in that part of the world. In light of the 
increasing unreliability of oil supplies in the current era, however caused, 
I recommend that all overseas cryonicists get to the U.S. or Canada somehow 
and figure out a way to stay indefinitely in either country, even if you 
have to do so illegally.

Regards,

Mark Plus

_________________________________________________________________
Best Restaurant Giveaway Ever! Vote for your favorites for a chance to win 
$1 million! http://local.msn.com/special/giveaway.asp

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=24104