X-Message-Number: 24176
From: 
Date: Tue, 1 Jun 2004 11:08:53 EDT
Subject: Re: Futures speculation exchange

In a message dated 5/31/2004 12:19:56 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
 writes:

    For those of you with strong opinions about what will or ought to
be, here is your chance to back it up with bucks and maybe make some if
you're right.

http://www.intrade.com/

    I'm sorry if you think this is spam.  I just figured this is
something most of you would be interested in.

Mike Read
Hello, Mike Read and fellow Cryoneters,

I just returned from the site Mike Read recommended.  

Far from being spam, I think it is highly relevant to the future oriented, 
prescient budding geniuses on this forum.  

It is one thing to speculate about future events.  What this site does, as I 
understand it, is to quantify these speculations.  And allow the "free market" 
to set probabilities or "odds" of a given event happening.  

Similiar to an concept I heard a fascinating fellow speak of at the last 

Extro conference, I think.  This guy was the developer of "The Last Whole Earth

Catalogue" and a proponent called "The Art of the Long View."  He had a "futures
exchange" of ideas similar in concept.  But the required "bets" were larger 
than the site Mike has made us aware of.  Does anyone else remember the full 
data on this?

I am going to go back and study the site, and possibly sign up.  If we are in 
the future business, let's hone our skills at making accurate "guesses" about 
outcomes.  

Rudi Hoffman


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