X-Message-Number: 24270
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 09:49:29 -0400
From: Thomas Donaldson <>
Subject: CryoNet #24091 - #24094

HI everyone!

I know that this commentary is late, but I'll send it anyway. I am
referring to the note by  on the "probabilities" of
revival, and Steve Bridge's comments on it. 

Basically I feel very glad that Steve put this message on Cryonet.
As someone with some familiarity with probability theory, I have
repeatedly argued against the idea that we can attach a probability
to our revival for the very same reasons that Steve Bridge gives.
Put more technically, we cannot attach a probability to events 
affected by our own actions. Even an "estimate" won't work, for
the very same reason --- plus the obvious fact that calling it
an "estimate" is just a way to give a different word to what you're
doing when you "attach a probability". Those who think this should
try shaking their heads to wake themselves up.

            Best wishes and long long life to all,

                   Thomas Donaldson

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