X-Message-Number: 24471
Date: Thu, 5 Aug 2004 10:24:11 -0400
From: "Jonathan Hinek" <>
Subject: Rapid spread of sub-replacement fertility
References: <>

The rate of world population growth is important to all of us, I assume. 
Especially if our ultimate goal is a virtually unlimited life span for 
every Earthling. This article has some interesting insights about the 
last census:


Four Surprises in Global Demography:

(1) the rapid spread of sub-replacement fertility,

(2) the emergence of unnatural gender imbalances among the very young,

(3) sustained increases in death rates

(4) American "demographic exceptionalism".

"Sub-replacement fertility is clearly no longer mainly a 
developed-nation phenomenon.  If the Census Bureau's projections are 
roughly accurate, just about half the world's population lives in 
sub-replacement countries or territories.  Apart from Mongolia, 
according to the Census Bureau, all of East Asia is sub-replacement, as 
are Thailand and Burma in Southeast Asia, Kazakhstan and Sri Lanka in 
South-Central Asia, many Caribbean societies, and most South American 
countries.  Perhaps the biggest surprise, given received notions about 
the Arab/Muslim expanse, is the recent spread of sub- replacement 
fertility to parts of the Arab and the Muslim world."


Full text available at the above URL. A longer version of the article is 
also set to be published in the September issue of ORBIS world affairs 

Jonathan Hinek
Eschaton Outlook

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