X-Message-Number: 24645 Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 18:08:45 -0400 From: "Raphael T. Haftka" <> Subject: Oil crisis References: <> Oil is cheap! Having lived in the United States since 1968, I find it amusing that people get excited about the price of gasoline. In 1968 I drove a 1958 Chevy Impala that got about 10 miles to the gallon. Gasoline was 30 cents to the gallon, so the 10,000 miles that I put on the car cost $300/year, which was about 10% of my income. The other expenses on the car, including depreciation were about the same, so gasoline account for 50% of my cost of keeping a car. Now I am driving a 2003 Toyota Avalon, which gives me about 16 miles to the gallon. At $1.90/gallon, this is about 12 cents per mile, which is less than a quarter of the cost of driving (including depreciation it is about 55 cents/mile). If the cost of gasoline went to $19/gallon, I could easily switch to a car like the Prius that would give me 50 miles to the gallon. This will raise the cost of gas to 38 cents per mile, which would still be less than half of the total cost of driving, even if the other expenses stayed the same. Similarly for airfares. The cost of flying has not kept with inflation, and gasoline at the present is also only about 20% of the cost of flying. So even a 10-times increase is not likely to more than double fares, and as an aerospace engineer, I am sure we will design more fuel efficient airplanes and flight patterns. Rafi Haftka Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=24645