X-Message-Number: 25166
From: "mike99" <>
Subject: SKEPTIC magazine finally publishes some pro-cryonics writings
Date: Sat, 27 Nov 2004 12:19:16 -0700

The latest issue of SKEPTIC magazine (November 2004, vol. 11 no. 2) has 2
letters and 1 article by pro-cryonics writers. This is a refreshing change
from their previous habit of publishing almost exclusively only
anti-cryonics items that, in many cases, include glaring errors of fact and
logic.

In the current issue, a section titled "Cryonics Forum" appears (pp. 27-31).
It begins with letters from Brian Wowk, PhD of 21st Century Medicine, and
Steven Harris, MD, that focus on the exciting developments in vitrification
research. These letters, which occupy the first page of the section, are
followed by a 4-page article by Prof. Gregory Benford (physicist and science
fiction author) titled "A Frozen Future? Cryonics as a Gamble."

Dr. Benford focuses on estimating the odds that cryonics will succeed (both
technically and, for resuscitation, socially). In the course of doing so, he
includes mention of many facts about the development of cryonics (such at
the signal contribution of Robert Ettinger's book THE PROSPECT OF
IMMORTALITY) that will be helpful to novices who, up until now, may only
have known the sketchy facts from the earlier, anti-cryonics articles that
appeared in SKEPTIC. Benford structures his odds estimate as the product of
his estimated probabilities for several independent variables. Admitting
that this is highly subjective and extremely unlikely to be very accurate,
Benford still recommends this exercise as a way to get a feel for how likely
each component of cryonics might be, and how likely total success might be
(i.e., successful revival from cryonic suspension).

The component probabilities are categorized by Benford as Metaphysical (Does
the brain really contain the mind?), Social (Will your cryo-preserved brain
make it to the era when revival becomes possible, or will some terminal
damage be inflicted upon it by mobs, bureaucrats or accidents before then?),
and Technological (Will cryonics work at all?). Benford sees little
likelihood that the mind is not the brain, so he rates the Metaphysical odds
very favorably as 0.9 (90%). However, he deems the Social odds to be
distinctly less favorable, at a mere 0.36. On the Technological odds,
Benford is concerned that the very nanotechnology that seems most promising
for revival from cyro-preservation is also capable of wreaking vast
destruction, so he estimates the Technological odds at a mere 0.5.

Multiplying these component odds, Benford arrives at a final estimate of
success at a surprisingly small 0.7 (7%). Does this mean Dr. Benford
believes that cryonics is not worthwhile? Not at all. He goes on to point
out that there are other ways to view these odds, such a considering them as
a return on investment. A 7% return is actually quite good. Then Benford
reconsiders some of his earlier assumptions and, choosing to be more
optimistic than when he started his exercise, comes to a final estimate of
success of about 30%.

Benford ends his article with the following words:
"...for those willing to gamble on a probabilistic scenario whose success
could result in significant life extension, I think it is a bet worth
taking. There may also be one last benefit. Unless you believe the
probability is exactly zero, with cryonics you can die with a sense of
hope."


Regards,

Michael LaTorra




"For any man to abdicate an interest in science is to walk with open eyes
towards slavery."
-- Jacob Bronowski

"Experiences only look special from the inside of the system."
-- Eugen Leitl

Member:
Extropy Institute: www.extropy.org
World Transhumanist Association: www.transhumanism.org
Alcor Life Extension Foundation: www.alcor.org
Society for Technical Communication: www.stc.org

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=25166