X-Message-Number: 25807 From: Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 09:30:59 EST Subject: double blind etc Joseph Morgan writes in part: >The current issue of Skeptics magazine has an article titled The Double-Blind >Gaze for former holistic M.D. Steven Bratman. Dr. Bratman now believes that >anything less than a randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a medical >treatment is ineffective. Confounding factors such as the placebo effect, the re->interpretation effect, observer bias, natural course of an illness, regression to the >mean, and the study effect obscure the results of less rigorous tests to both the >patients and the researchers. >This seriously calls into question almost all nutritional supplements and even what >constitutes a healthy diet since none of these things have been rigorously tested. Sure. And and an immortality pill won't be proven until you have lived forever. And with the cryonics "experiment" almost everyone is in the control group. Surprise--we have to make decisions without guarantees, and often with only flimsy facts. Doing nothing is also a decision, not necessarily the best one. If you were to totally ignore every hint, so long as it remains only a hint or guess, then--surprise again--you never do anything, not even a "scientific" test. Even a "test" is an investment, and an expensive one if it is full double-blind and a large study. Every proven discovery started out as a mere hint or suggestion or guess or small sample. Less-than-perfect evidence is still evidence. It's the big picture, folks. You have to weigh the probable benefits against the probable costs. The biggest joke is the last line in the quotes above: >This seriously calls into question almost all nutritional supplements and even what >constitutes a healthy diet since none of these things have been rigorously tested. Right. We do not have sufficiently rigorous studies of what constitutes a healthy diet. Does this mean we pig out whenever we feel like it? Robert Ettinger Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" [ AUTOMATICALLY SKIPPING HTML ENCODING! ] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=25807