X-Message-Number: 25815
From: 
Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 11:28:24 EST
Subject: Route 66

Content-Language: en

 
This  is prompted by a communication concerning my recent post on evidence 
for  supplements. 
Most  people   including most scientists and mathematicians   are poorly 

informed about  the foundations and uses of probability theory. In particular, 
many 
seem to  think one can use similar criteria to evaluate supplements and 
cryonics. This is  not the case. As a crude analogy, consider the following 
questions: 
(1)  Is there a way to get from geographical point A to B? 
(2)  Can you get from A to B via Route 66? 
Both  questions are easy to answer, in principle.  
Either Route 66 goes through both A and B or not, so that  answers (2). 
The  answer to (1) is Yes in principle, because there is always SOME way to 
get from  one point to another on the surface of the earth. In practice, of 

course, if B  is in the middle of a volcano you wouldn   t even want to get 
there. 
Now let   s  look at supplements and cryonics. 
(3)  Is supplement X reasonably efficacious for life extension? 
(4)  Is cryonics likely to work for member or patient X? 
(3)  in principle has a clear and sharp answer, yes or no, which could be 
revealed by  adequate experiment. In practice, as usual, the cost usually 
prohibits finding  that answer for a long time. 
(4)  in principle also has a clear and sharp answer, which is Yes, because of 
the  Precedent Principle. Whatever has existed (on a human scale), can exist 

again.  You    merely    have to rearrange the atoms. In practice, once more, 
the 
 difficulties allow room for argument as to particular procedures and time  
scales.  
But  at one level we are talking about malleable or feedback-sensitive 
probabilities,  which can be altered by our own actions. This doesn   t change 

probability theory,  but it materially changes the available strategies. 
Choosing to 
use a supplement  does not alter the chance that it is effective. Choosing 
cryonics does improve  the chance that it will work.  
Robert Ettinger 



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