X-Message-Number: 26543
From: 
Date: Thu, 7 Jul 2005 10:05:14 EDT
Subject: sales probabilities

Dave Pizer has asked me to do probability calculations regarding his  
religious suit proposal. However, I had previously pointed out that I have  no 
expertise in sales psychology. Dave himself is a pretty good salesman, but  

nobody--nobody--has reliable expertise in predicting psychological reactions of
the 
crowd, let alone of individuals.
 
If you need examples, start with the Edsel. Ford spent large  amounts on 
professional marketing studies, and it was a huge flop. 
 
Or look at Warren Buffet, who made billlions in the market with his  

Berkshire Hathaway fund. His record over the years is obviously good--but in  
the  
first half of the year 2000, as I recall, in an  unusually strong market, he 
suffered a substantial loss. And there are  countless examples of people with 
previously good track records suddenly falling  on their faces.   
 
Salesmanship is guesswork. Some are better at it than others--but usually  
the result of error is just loss of potential. If there is also risk of real  
loss or danger, the balance changes.
 
I can do probability calculations, but I need data of known or reasonably  
estimated reliability, which I don't have in this case.  
 
Robert Ettinger


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