X-Message-Number: 26782
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Predicted Cryonics Institute patients to 2044
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2005 12:03:03 +0200

Using the below Cryonics Institute patient data, I have predicted  
patient numbers to 2044. The prediction is based upon an exponential  
model fit to the data starting in 1990, when CI had 5 patients. Thus,  
it is based upon 15 years of data. The earlier years were eliminated,  
because the slope of the line on a log plot was clearly different  
from that starting in 1990. However, it doesn't appear that including  
that data would make much difference (note that the Predicted for  
earlier years is reasonable).

The patients received from ACS are excluded, since we don't know  
their year of suspension and the growth curve for ACS may have been  
different, in any case. I looked at few other models. The cubic  
function appeared to be better than a quadratic. However, the  
straight line on the log plot indicated an exponential relationship  
is most likely.

In ten years we expect 328 patients at CI,
in 20 1607,
in 30 7883,
in 40 38658.
Patient population is increasing by 17 percent a year. Thus, it is  
doubling about every five years.
These results suggest that patient population will grow by a thousand  
in 2033 and by over five thousand in 2044.


While this data may be useful in sizing organizational capacity,  
additional data, of a longitudinal type, is needed if models are to  
be helpful in marketing. Thus, it would be desirable to know, for  
each patient; when did they first contact the organization, when did  
they become a member, when did they request sign up papers, and when  
did they complete all arrangements, etc. Some demographic background  
(age, sex, income, etc.) could also be useful in targeting a  
marketing effort.


Year    Predicted    Observed

1975    0.66448    0
1976    0.77900    0
1977    0.91326    1
1978    1.07065    1
1979    1.25517    1
1980    1.47149    2
1981    1.72509    2
1982    2.02239    2
1983    2.37094    2
1984    2.77955    2
1985    3.25858    2
1986    3.82017    2
1987    4.47855    3
1988    5.25039    3
1989    6.15525    3
1990    7.21606    5
1991    8.45970    7
1992    9.91766    12
1993    11.6269    12
1994    13.6307    15
1995    15.9798    18
1996    18.7338    22
1997    21.9625    25
1998    25.7475    30
1999    30.1849    31
2000    35.3870    36
2001    41.4857    40
2002    48.6354    45
2003    57.0174    51
2004    66.8438    58
2005    78.3638    .
2006    91.8692    .
2007    107.702    .
2008    126.264    .
2009    148.024    .
2010    173.535    .
2011    203.443    .
2012    238.504    .
2013    279.609    .
2014    327.797    .
2015    384.290    .
2016    450.520    .
2017    528.163    .
2018    619.188    .
2019    725.900    .
2020    851.003    .
2021    997.667    .
2022    1169.61    .
2023    1371.18    .
2024    1607.49    .
2025    1884.53    .
2026    2209.31    .
2027    2590.07    .
2028    3036.45    .
2029    3559.76    .
2030    4173.25    .
2031    4892.48    .
2032    5735.66    .
2033    6724.16    .
2034    7883.01    .
2035    9241.59    .
2036    10834.3    .
2037    12701.5    .
2038    14890.5    .
2039    17456.8    .
2040    20465.3    .
2041    23992.3    .
2042    28127.2    .
2043    32974.7    .
2044    38657.7    .


dss

  Skype: davidstodolsky



David Stodolsky    Skype: davidstodolsky

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