X-Message-Number: 26967 From: David Stodolsky <> Subject: Predicted Cryonics Institute membership to 2044 Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2005 09:46:38 +0200 --Apple-Mail-3--317972819 delsp=yes; format=flowed Using the below Cryonics Institute data, I have predicted membership to 2044. The prediction is based upon an exponential model fit to the data starting in 1985, when CI had 16 members. Thus, it is based upon 20 years of data. The earlier years were eliminated, because the slope of the line on a log plot was clearly different from that starting in 1985. See (scroll down): <http://cryin.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$52> In ten years we expect 2,314 members at CI, in 20 12,712, in 30 69,832, in 40 383,616. Member population is increasing by almost 19 percent a year. Thus, it is more than doubling every five years. These results suggest that member population will grow by almost eight thousand in 2033 and by over sixty thousand in 2044. From 1998 on, growth seems much faster, with a doubling time closer to three years - 23 percent per year. While the Year by Period (1985-1997 vs. 1998-2004) interaction is highly significant (P<0.0018), we preselected the break point, so that needs to be taken into account (Was there any change in membership strategy at CI around 1997?). If this faster growth rate continues, member population will be over 1/2 million in 2044, with an increase of about 120,000 in that year. Member growth is exceeding patient growth by about 1.5 percent per year (6 percent per year based on data from 1998-2004). Year Predicted-1998 Predicted-1985 Observed 1975 0.59189857 3.01300374 0 1976 0.7471456 3.57259421 2 1977 0.94311184 4.23611468 9 1978 1.1904774 5.02286757 13 1979 1.50272361 5.95574024 15 1980 1.8968678 7.06187078 15 1981 2.39439072 8.37343756 15 1982 3.0224072 9.92859522 16 1983 3.81514396 11.7725847 16 1984 4.81580492 13.9590494 16 1985 6.07892578 16.5515955 16 1986 7.67334627 19.6256425 19 1987 9.6859618 23.2706172 21 1988 12.2264593 27.5925553 29 1989 15.4332952 32.7171858 37 1990 19.481241 38.793589 44 1991 24.5909085 45.9985328 52 1992 31.0407731 54.5416156 60 1993 39.1823504 64.6713636 67 1994 49.459354 76.6824601 77 1995 62.4318774 90.9243189 90 1996 78.8069192 107.811249 95 1997 99.4769143 127.834505 100 1998 125.568371 151.576584 119 1999 158.503266 179.728162 160 2000 200.076541 213.108196 202 2001 252.553927 252.687741 266 2002 318.795426 299.618201 330 2003 402.411179 355.264826 408 2004 507.95822 421.246427 476 2005 641.18883 499.482469 . 2006 809.364037 592.248908 . 2007 1021.64934 702.244406 . 2008 1289.61422 832.66883 . 2009 1627.86269 987.316345 . 2010 2054.82918 1170.68579 . 2011 2593.78324 1388.11154 . 2012 3274.0977 1645.91872 . 2013 4132.8495 1951.60717 . 2014 5216.84035 2314.06963 . 2015 6585.14741 2743.85049 . 2016 8312.34302 3253.45244 . 2017 10492.5588 3857.70027 . 2018 13244.6159 4574.1721 . 2019 16718.5005 5423.71075 . 2020 21103.5384 6431.03006 . 2021 26638.7127 7625.43386 . 2022 33625.6888 9041.66846 . 2023 42445.2547 10720.9334 . 2024 53578.0742 12712.08 . 2025 67630.8825 15073.0325 . 2026 85369.5535 17872.4732 . 2027 107760.839 21191.8404 . 2028 136025.058 25127.6974 . 2029 171702.602 29794.542 . 2030 216737.885 35328.1367 . 2031 273585.318 41889.459 . 2032 345343.067 49669.3837 . 2033 435921.91 58894.2358 . 2034 550258.364 69832.3746 . 2035 694583.733 82802.0004 . 2036 876763.705 98180.4116 . 2037 1106727.03 116414.98 . 2038 1397006.65 138036.166 . 2039 1763422.71 163672.949 . 2040 2225944.77 194071.126 . 2041 2809780.15 230115.009 . 2042 3546747.7 272853.145 . 2043 4477011.92 323528.827 . 2044 5651271.94 383616.257 . dss Skype: davidstodolsky --Apple-Mail-3--317972819 Content-Type: text/html; [ AUTOMATICALLY SKIPPING HTML ENCODING! ] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=26967