X-Message-Number: 2795
Date: 03 Jun 94 00:06:08 EDT
From: Paul Wakfer <>
Subject: CRYONICS.SCI An Opinion Poll

To: CRYONET

     This is part of an ongoing discussion of the likelihood of success of
cryopreservation.  And, yes, I agree with Ralph Merkle that the possible
restoration of a cryopreserved patient to life in the future, relates not
just to progress in nanotechnology, but to developments in all current and
future technologies.

     The opinion poll which I wish to take is based on the following
thought experiment.

     The thought experiment creates a potential continuum of estimates
concerning the revivability of cryonics patients.  The potential continuum
consists of the real numbers from 0 to 100 expressed as percentage
likelihood estimates.
     Let us imagine that a patient is, today, cryopreserved, including
final cooling to the temperature of the boiling point of LN2, with the best
currently possible and timely legal situation, the best currently possible
and timely mainstream medical cooperation, and the best currently possible
and timely application of cryopreservation techniques.  Let us further
imagine that the patient is then immediately transported into the future as
far forward in time as necessary to gain the maximum benefit from whatever
technologies will possibly be available in the future.  (Since it is
generally accepted that, at LN2 temperature, virtually no further changes
take place during thousands of years, this is essentially the same as
saying: For the purposes of this thought experiment, let's ignore the
difficulties and improbabilities inherent in caring for the patient over
the necessary time period to get him/her to the optimal date for
restoration.)

     Under these circumstances, I ask each reader to send me, by email,
his/her percentage estimations of the likelihood of:

1) total restoration of the patient's mind/identity/consciousness, and

2) restoration of the essentials of the mind/identity/consciousness.

The interpretation to be placed on "essentials" is:  That minimum which you
would require to be restored before you would consider, as viewed from your
current perspective, that cryopreservation had been successful.  The
interpretation of "mind/identity/consciousness", I leave to the reader.

     I was going to end with an interpretation of the types of answer which
I expect.  However, I've thought better of that and have decided to await
the results before I possibly become guilty of demolishing a straw man.  I
do promise to report the results and to initiate a discussion of their
interpretation, once a reasonable number have come in.

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