X-Message-Number: 2795 Date: 03 Jun 94 00:06:08 EDT From: Paul Wakfer <> Subject: CRYONICS.SCI An Opinion Poll To: CRYONET This is part of an ongoing discussion of the likelihood of success of cryopreservation. And, yes, I agree with Ralph Merkle that the possible restoration of a cryopreserved patient to life in the future, relates not just to progress in nanotechnology, but to developments in all current and future technologies. The opinion poll which I wish to take is based on the following thought experiment. The thought experiment creates a potential continuum of estimates concerning the revivability of cryonics patients. The potential continuum consists of the real numbers from 0 to 100 expressed as percentage likelihood estimates. Let us imagine that a patient is, today, cryopreserved, including final cooling to the temperature of the boiling point of LN2, with the best currently possible and timely legal situation, the best currently possible and timely mainstream medical cooperation, and the best currently possible and timely application of cryopreservation techniques. Let us further imagine that the patient is then immediately transported into the future as far forward in time as necessary to gain the maximum benefit from whatever technologies will possibly be available in the future. (Since it is generally accepted that, at LN2 temperature, virtually no further changes take place during thousands of years, this is essentially the same as saying: For the purposes of this thought experiment, let's ignore the difficulties and improbabilities inherent in caring for the patient over the necessary time period to get him/her to the optimal date for restoration.) Under these circumstances, I ask each reader to send me, by email, his/her percentage estimations of the likelihood of: 1) total restoration of the patient's mind/identity/consciousness, and 2) restoration of the essentials of the mind/identity/consciousness. The interpretation to be placed on "essentials" is: That minimum which you would require to be restored before you would consider, as viewed from your current perspective, that cryopreservation had been successful. The interpretation of "mind/identity/consciousness", I leave to the reader. I was going to end with an interpretation of the types of answer which I expect. However, I've thought better of that and have decided to await the results before I possibly become guilty of demolishing a straw man. I do promise to report the results and to initiate a discussion of their interpretation, once a reasonable number have come in. Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=2795