X-Message-Number: 28034 References: <> From: Peter Merel <> Subject: Singularity as Religion Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 12:12:08 +1000 John K Clark writes, > Well, Wal-Mart had a better year than Haiti. A capitalist would > change this > situation by enriching Haiti, a socialist would change this > situation by > impoverishing Wal-Mart. Most of Haiti's present problems are due directly to political interference by the USA. Yes, apart from wealth, the two countries are actually very similar. Both are feudal - Wal Mart is the name of a well known US fiefdom. Neither country possesses functional human rights guarantees, free markets, or representative democracy. Both are ruled by self-styled dictators installed by coup d'etat. > Not true. You name the air pollutant, nitric oxide, Sulfur dioxide, > anything, and there is less of it in the air now than 20 years ago. > The > water is cleaner too. In the air, Carbon Dioxide and Methane. In the water, carbonic acid. > There have been times when the Earth has been much colder than now, > there > have been times when it was much warmer, I have no reason to > believe the > exact temperature it's at right now is the absolute perfect > temperature. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4467420.stm - Arctic core samples demonstrate: * The earth has 130% more methane in the atmosphere than at any time in the last 650,000 years * The earth has 27% more CO2 in the atmosphere than at any time in the last 650,000 years http://www.ids.org.au/~cnevill/marineOceanAcidification.htm - Ocean acidification is accelerating: * Ocean Ph to drop from 8.2 to 7.7 by 2100 * Most large coral reefs will be dead by 2050 * By 2100 plankton and similar bases of marine ecosystems will dissolve > Then why are commodities, steel, copper, coal, cheaper now than > they were 30 > years age using real inflation adjusted dollars; even gasoline was > cheaper, > 60 cents a gallon wasn't cheap if you only made $4000 a year. 30 years ago China was not an industrial power so demand was far lower. Right now commodities are enormously unstable, spiking well above previous records, and all indicators suggest supply has peaked while spiraling demand from China and India continues to force prices to rise. >> Of course if you believe "the Singularity is nigh" you might > >> just prefer >> to go full-steam ahead in the expectation that the super-AI will >> clean up >> our mess and find nice ways of doing things. > > Yes that's my philosophy, and even without the Singularity the > people of the > future will certainly be better at solving problems than we are, > just as we > are better at it than the people of 1906. The history of all human societies show booms and busts, and the present is unlikely to be any different. As for 1906, that was a time of enormous scientific and engineering innovation, vastly beyond our capabilities today. Tesla, Einstein and Bohr were just hitting their straps. http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7616 demonstrates that, far from improving our problem solving abilities, our human ability to innovate has now sunk to pre-Renaissance levels. AI is a good example of this. After many decades and billions of dollars all our efforts in AI have foundered on one fundamental problem: combinatorial complexity. Fusion is another great technological boondoggle. Both demonstrate that you can apply all the brainpower and hard work you like to some problems, and get exactly nothing back. To suggest otherwise is not a philosophy. It's a religion. Peter Merel. Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=28034