X-Message-Number: 28034
References: <>
From: Peter Merel <>
Subject: Singularity as Religion
Date: Thu, 15 Jun 2006 12:12:08 +1000

John K Clark writes,

> Well, Wal-Mart had a better year than Haiti. A capitalist would  
> change this
> situation by enriching Haiti, a socialist would change this  
> situation by
> impoverishing Wal-Mart.

Most of Haiti's present problems are due directly to political  
interference by the USA. Yes, apart from wealth, the two countries  
are actually very similar. Both are feudal - Wal Mart is the name of  
a well known US fiefdom. Neither country possesses functional human  
rights guarantees, free markets, or representative democracy. Both  
are ruled by self-styled dictators installed by coup d'etat.

> Not true. You name the air pollutant, nitric oxide, Sulfur dioxide,
> anything, and there is less of it in the air now than 20 years ago.  
> The
> water is cleaner too.

In the air, Carbon Dioxide and Methane. In the water, carbonic acid.

> There have been times when the Earth has been much colder than now,  
> there
> have been times when it was much warmer, I have no reason to  
> believe the
> exact temperature it's at right now is the absolute perfect  
> temperature.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4467420.stm - Arctic core samples  
demonstrate:

* The earth has 130% more methane in the atmosphere than at any time  
in the last 650,000 years
* The earth has 27% more CO2 in the atmosphere than at any time in  
the last 650,000 years

http://www.ids.org.au/~cnevill/marineOceanAcidification.htm - Ocean  
acidification is accelerating:

* Ocean Ph to drop from 8.2 to 7.7 by 2100
* Most large coral reefs will be dead by 2050
* By 2100 plankton and similar bases of marine ecosystems will dissolve

> Then why are commodities, steel, copper, coal, cheaper now than  
> they were 30
> years age using real inflation adjusted dollars; even gasoline was  
> cheaper,
> 60 cents a gallon wasn't cheap if you only made $4000 a year.

30 years ago China was not an industrial power so demand was far  
lower. Right now commodities are enormously unstable, spiking well  
above previous records, and all indicators suggest supply has peaked  
while spiraling demand from China and India continues to force prices  
to rise.

>> Of course if you believe "the Singularity is nigh" you might >  
>> just prefer
>> to go full-steam ahead in the expectation that the super-AI will  
>> clean up
>> our mess and find nice ways of doing things.
>
> Yes that's my philosophy, and even without the Singularity the  
> people of the
> future will certainly be better at solving problems than we are,  
> just as we
> are better at it than the people of 1906.

The history of all human societies show booms and busts, and the  
present is unlikely to be any different. As for 1906, that was a time  
of enormous scientific and engineering innovation, vastly beyond our  
capabilities today. Tesla, Einstein and Bohr were just hitting their  
straps. http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7616 demonstrates  
that, far from improving our problem solving abilities, our human  
ability to innovate has now sunk to pre-Renaissance levels.

AI is a good example of this. After many decades and billions of  
dollars all our efforts in AI have foundered on one fundamental  
problem: combinatorial complexity. Fusion is another great  
technological boondoggle. Both demonstrate that you can apply all the  
brainpower and hard work you like to some problems, and get exactly  
nothing back. To suggest otherwise is not a philosophy. It's a religion.

Peter Merel.

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=28034