X-Message-Number: 28295
Date: Mon, 07 Aug 2006 00:25:11 -0500
From: 
Subject: The Probable Speed of AGI Evolution

Jordan Sparks said:

"That's not how AI works.  This is not scifi.  The AGI that they are trying
to build would only be just the beginning.  It would be useful, but still
very dumb.  It would take decades more before this question would even be a
serious one.  And by that time, we would understand the issues more fully.
Until AGI has been around for years, it's simply not an issue.  I personally
think they are far too optimistic about what is currently possible.  I don't
think AGI will be born for something like another 20 years.  But I still
wish them luck, and I hope I'm wrong."

AGI is generally understood to be the more radical form of AI development 
that aspires to create machine intelligence equivalent to human.  Assuming 
you understand that, I could interpret your comments to mean it will be 
slow in coming.

There is nothing slow about computers.  They do operations incredibly 
faster than the human brain, and this capability will only continue to 
multiply.  Once computers are given algorithms enabling any real 
self-directed development, I'm warning that the next morning you may wake 
up to a very new and different world.  You might not even make it to bed 
the night before.

Organizations that promote such reckless endangerment to the human race, 
should be legislated out of existence, unless they can demonstrate thorough 
safeguards.

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