X-Message-Number: 289
From att!usc.edu!more%girtab.usc.edu Sat Apr  6 15:24:26 PST 1991
From: more% (Max More)
Subject: Re: cryonics #288 - Re: Legalized Murder and Theft

	I won't guess how long it will take for reactivation of biostasis
patients to become possible - assuming it will be possible. The
interesting question for me, as a philosopher is: What are the criteria
for making educated guesses about timescales for reanimation (or any
projected scientific/technical achievement)? 
	Of course, the question first has to be broken down into several:
How long to be able to reactivate biostasis patients frozen with 1991
techniques? 1967 techniques? 1980 techniques? 2000 techniques, etc.
	I made some points about prediction in my [Dec. 1990] Cryonics column,
"Possibility and Prediction," but I'd like to hear what others have to
say. What kind of factors have to be considered, and how accurately can
we expect to assign figures for each? It seems that we could not reason
-ably give more than a very broad range of dates for each projection. For
example, even if we assume that nanotech will certainly be possible (a certain
type of nanotech), our guess for its availability date will depend on many
factors, including the degree of scientific and political commitment to
funding the relevant research, the speed of development in computer
techniques in molecular modelling, and the cost of reactivation.
	If pushed, I will guess the time for reactivation of suspension
patients frozen with current techniques to be anything between 50 and 250 
years, though I really don't think enough information is available yet
to set a date with any confidence. If we could work out the various
factors relevant to making a time projection, someone (not me!) might be
able to put the variable and probabilities into a program which would
give ranges for answers depending on the assumptions. That might be a
fun little project for one of you programmers. If you have suggestions
for what variables to include in the program, let me know. If someone
actually writes such a program I'd like to publish it in:
	EXTROPY: The Journal of Transhumanist Thought.
Max More.

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=289