X-Message-Number: 28921
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: Declining innovation, was Postponing "the future" to the 22nd...
Date: Sun, 14 Jan 2007 07:35:35 -0800

You can download Jonathan Huebner's paper here (requires Adobe):

A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation

Huebner allows that the decline could derive from human cognitive limits as 
much as economic and physical constraints, so software solutions might 
overcome the current barriers.

Of course, if you interpret this to mean that AI will reignite technological 
progress, that field in itself has stagnated for decades. AI got started 
when "I Love Lucy" ran as a current TV series, and as of today it shows no 
sign of a breakout despite the lifetime efforts of a lot of very smart 
people spending some serious money. As Thomas Donaldson wrote in Cryonics 
magazine circa 1990, "The Singularity has been called off."

Mark Plus

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