X-Message-Number: 28921 From: "Mark Plus" <> Subject: Declining innovation, was Postponing "the future" to the 22nd... Date: Sun, 14 Jan 2007 07:35:35 -0800 You can download Jonathan Huebner's paper here (requires Adobe): A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/starkey/201-590_bulletinboard/Huebner.pdf Huebner allows that the decline could derive from human cognitive limits as much as economic and physical constraints, so software solutions might overcome the current barriers. Of course, if you interpret this to mean that AI will reignite technological progress, that field in itself has stagnated for decades. AI got started when "I Love Lucy" ran as a current TV series, and as of today it shows no sign of a breakout despite the lifetime efforts of a lot of very smart people spending some serious money. As Thomas Donaldson wrote in Cryonics magazine circa 1990, "The Singularity has been called off." Mark Plus _________________________________________________________________ Get live scores and news about your team: Add the Live.com Football Page www.live.com/?addtemplate=football&icid=T001MSN30A0701 Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=28921