X-Message-Number: 28931
Date: Sun, 14 Jan 2007 14:04:11 -0800
From: Olaf Henny <>
Subject: Re: Postponing... (Mark Plus)
References: <>

In Message # 28895 Mark Plus wrote in part:

Physicist Jonathan Huebner would take issue with that assertion:

Entering a dark age of innovation

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7616

Hi Mark:

First of all let me apologize for this late reply. For some 
reason I have not received the Saturday mailing of Cryonet.

Also in that article about glass-half-empty Huebner:

"It's an unfashionable view. Most futurologists say technology is 
developing at exponential rates. Moore's law, for example, 
foresaw chip densities (for which read speed and memory capacity) 
doubling every 18 months. And the chip makers have lived up to 
its predictions. Building on this, the less well-known Kurzweil's 
law says that these faster, smarter chips are leading to even 
faster growth in the power of computers. Developments in genome 
sequencing and nanoscale machinery are racing ahead too, and 
internet connectivity and telecommunications bandwith are growing 
even faster than computer power, catalysing still further waves 
of innovation."

"And, as Brian Wowk pointed out somewhere, "Moore's Law" hasn't 
done anything yet for healthcare and longevity."

True, while longevity is still creeping ahead at least here in 
Canada, where we have now a combined life expectancy of over 80, 
it certainly has not been an overwhelming progress. Neither has 
Moore's Law done much for innovation on the bicycle and in 1970 I 
would have predicted, that we would predicted, that we would by 
now have a thriving moon colony, but that is why this thing is 
called reSEARCH and not reFOUND. In other words science is 
searching and often finds things other than what it is looking 
for - or not.

While we here in North America are complacent and putting on our 
blinders, the rest of the world is slowly awakening and showing 
more concern:

EU Energy Plan Calls for Radical Emissions Reductions

Specifically, the European Commission plans to

* drastically expand climate protection goals; over and above the 
current agreements, the plan calls for a 35 percent reduction in 
CO2 emissions in the EU by 2035, and 50 percent by 2050;

* promote renewable energies, which would make up 20 percent of 
primary energy consumption in the EU by 2020, with the 
consumption of biofuels increasing to 10 percent;

* implement an open market system of trading in electricity and 
gas, which would enable individual consumers to select their own 
energy providers throughout the EU;

* encourage the major utility companies to sell their vast 
electricity and natural gas networks, thereby guaranteeing 
effective competition.

For full story see: 
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,456838,00.html

World population growth rate has dwindled from a high of 2.2% in 
the early sixties to less than 1.2% today (see 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:World_population_increase_history.svg ) 
. I believe, that these rates will recline further, as in some 
developing countries the standard of living improves and the 
family emphasis moves from more children to better support the 
aging to better educated children, who can better afford to 
support the aging. Education is costly also to the parents. 
Therefore less children. I especially expect a significant impact 
of this development in India an the ASEAN countries

During a trip to Turkey, in Fall 2004 I noticed arrays of solar 
water heaters on almost every building along the Mediterranean 
coast hot showers were never a problem even in the cheap digs we 
frequented. In Germany most new houses integrate solar water 
heaters in their structures. They had special incentives of 
course, because prices of petroleum products had been kept 
artificially high through taxes there for years.

When the oil prices settle between $65 and 70.-, as I expect will 
happen after the next OPEC meeting, we will also have to look for 
alternatives on this continent. While conservation of resources 
becomes more and more critical, the 
doing-your-wash-in-your-bath-water scenario will never happen, 
barring a huge environmental catastrophe.

Best,

Olaf

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