X-Message-Number: 28936
From: "Chris Manning" <>
References: <>
Subject: An error I just spotted
Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2007 21:44:26 +1100

In message # 28617 I wrote in part:
You are obviously talking about convergent geometric progressions. Yes, if
your likelihood of dying in any particular year decreases in a particular
way then your overall likelihood of dying can be less than unity.

For example, suppose your likelihood of dying in

2007 = 1/10
2008 = 1/90
2009 = 1/810
2010 = 1/7290 etc.

where each fraction is 1/9 x the previous one, then your likelihood of dying
at any time in 2007 or later = (1/10)/(1 - 1/9) = 8/90 or about 1/11.
_______________________The last two lines should have read:where each 
fraction is 1/9 x the previous one, then your likelihood of dying
at any time in 2007 or later = (1/10)/(1 - 1/9) = 9/80 or about 1/9.

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