X-Message-Number: 28951
From: "Chris Manning" <>
References: <>
Subject: Sorry, it should have appeared like this
Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2007 21:58:43 +1100

Sorry, my recent message #28936 should have appeared like this (assuming it 
does this time, of course):

Message #28936
From: "Chris Manning" <>
References: <>
Subject: An error I just spotted
Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2007 21:44:26 +1100

In message # 28617 I wrote in part:

You are obviously talking about convergent geometric progressions. Yes, if
your likelihood of dying in any particular year decreases in a particular
way then your overall likelihood of dying can be less than unity.

For example, suppose your likelihood of dying in

2007 = 1/10
2008 = 1/90
2009 = 1/810
2010 = 1/7290 etc.

where each fraction is 1/9 x the previous one, then your likelihood of dying 
at any time in 2007 or later = (1/10)/(1 - 1/9) = 8/90 or about 1/11.
_______________________

The last two lines should have read:

where each fraction is 1/9 x the previous one, then your likelihood of dying 
at any time in 2007 or later = (1/10)/(1 - 1/9) = 9/80 or about 1/9.

> Message #28936
> From: "Chris Manning" <>
> References: <>
> Subject: An error I just spotted
> Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2007 21:44:26 +1100
>
> In message # 28617 I wrote in part:
> You are obviously talking about convergent geometric progressions. Yes, if
> your likelihood of dying in any particular year decreases in a particular
> way then your overall likelihood of dying can be less than unity.
>
> For example, suppose your likelihood of dying in
>
> 2007 = 1/10
> 2008 = 1/90
> 2009 = 1/810
> 2010 = 1/7290 etc.
>
> where each fraction is 1/9 x the previous one, then your likelihood of 
> dying
> at any time in 2007 or later = (1/10)/(1 - 1/9) = 8/90 or about 1/11.
> _______________________The last two lines should have read:where each
> fraction is 1/9 x the previous one, then your likelihood of dying
> at any time in 2007 or later = (1/10)/(1 - 1/9) = 9/80 or about 1/9.
>

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