X-Message-Number: 29064
Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2007 06:41:13 -0800 (PST)
From: un person <>
Subject: growth and bustin' outta da ghetto....
on teh cold filter forum, Charles platt wrote:
Growth: What happened?
February 3 2007 at 11:58 PM Charles Platt (Login
cplatt)
Veteran Member
Today I ran across a memo from Mark Voelker, who was a
director of Alcor when he wrote the document. Mark
originated the very interesting idea of unbundling
cryonics services, but what caught my attention in his
memo were his predictions for future growth:
ALCOR'S GROWTH: A PROJECTION
Assuming a steady growth rate of 36% per year in
suspension membership, we are likely to have, for the
next 12 years, the following growth:
Present 3 Yrs 6 Yrs 9
Yrs 12 Yrs
------- ----- -----
----- ------
suspension members 320 805 2025
5093 12812
patients in suspension(1) 25 64 156
388 971
annual revenues(2) $210k $528k $1.33M
$3.34M $8.41M
patient care fund(3) $800k $2.05M $5.00M
$12.4M $31.1M
Notes: 1) Assumes a constant suspension rate of 2 per
100 members per year; 2) Assumes dues and donations
rates per member are same as at present; 3) Assumes
the ratio (PCTF assets/No. of patients) is the same as
at present.
I have tried to preserve the formatting of the
original by specifying Courier font.
Here's the interesting part: Mark (who is a good
scientist, and not normally prone to fits of wishful
thinking) made his prediction in 1992. His 12-year
prediction should have come true a couple of years
ago.
Something, obviously, went wrong, and not just at
Alcor; CI has experienced similarly modest growth
during the past decade.
//////////////////////////////////
My reply is:
See this graph:
http://img478.imageshack.us/img478/9362/decaycurvekc1.gif
See the graph above? I direct your attention in
particular to the red curve on top. This curve
represents one of the most common physical phenomenon
in the universe.
The curve represents change when dealing with a
limited supply of something. For example, when you
fill your car tire with air--there is a limited supply
of tire volume. Thus, as you can see from the curve,
there is at first a very fast growth rate of tire air
pressure, but as time goes on, the tire pressure
growth gets slower and slower. Diminishing returns,
Etc. You are probably already familiar with this
phenomenon.
This curve is the major factor in the growth curve of
cryonics. It does not in and of itself represent the
sole force in hte growth of cryonics. There are other
factors that help to create the growth graph of
cryonics. For example, population growth. Unlike the
tire volume, humans reproduce themselves.
But the reason we have not lived up to Voelker's
predictions is that the above curve describes the
dominant force in cryonics growth. Namely, the supply
of people who are psychologically suited to signing up
with cryonics (as it is presently "branded" (more on
that later)) is a very small percentage of the
population.
Cryonics membership is primarily composed of a certain
personality type--uber-rationalist,
iconoclastic, alienated, poorly-socialized,
steeped-in-science-fiction, quasi-aspergian "internet
dork." And that is a very small subset of the
population. (Among them being people who can use the
word "subset" on any appropriate ocassion...)
Now, Voelker must have had to some basis for assuming
the high growth rate that he did. I assume that
shortly before 1992 there was a similar high growth
rate.
So, shortly previous to that high growth rate in the
early 90s, there was a LOT of publicity, which came
practically saturated the available population pool,
which precipitated the fast growth. But the people who
signed up were part of a very small subset of the
population. I refer you to the red curve above. In
one-sixth of total time needed to reach total
saturation/no-more-returns, half of the tire is
filled. The tire is half-filled in one sixth of the
time that it takes to fill the entire tire.
That burst of publicity before 1992 caused a growth
spurt that almost exhausted the available and
psychologically-eligible population pool of likely
cryonicists. The publicity analogizes to the air pump.
Then came another air pump/
publicity-propagation-device: the internet. And there
was more membership signups. But the pool of
psyschologically eligible humans is again nearly
exhausted. Or at least we have already passed the fast
growth rate part of the curve for internet-induced
signups.
Of course there are other factors. Some few people who
are NOT part of that psychologically-suited subset are
indeed PERSUADED, and converted to cryonics. A very
small number. Persuasion in this area (cryonics) is
really overrated. We are social primates, animals.
Logic and rationality are a thin veneer over the
social animal hardwiring. There are far more
fundamental forces in play here.
Cryonics is presently relegated to the ghetto of
Uber-rationalist, alienated, quasi-aspergian "internet
dorks." For the most part.
The problem is that normal population of adults have a
set worldview, which does not allow for cryonics.
What cryonics needs to do to break out of the ghetto
is to piggyback and attach itself to other more
socially acceptable cultural forces. For example,
religion. If cryonics were branded/presented/sold as a
quasi-religion, it would tap into already-established
tropes and forces that religion taps into/has
constructed. And the available population pool is FAR
FAR greater. It very much DWARFS the numbers of
internet dorks, uber-rationalists, etc.
And guess what? Those "normals"? Their money is JUST
AS GREEN as the high-IQ atheist types you and I argue
with about cryonics on the internet. Their money would
just as well pay for LN2, for research, for marketing,
etc., as the money from computer programmers, and the
rest of us uber-geek types.
Another possible way to break out of our ghetto is to
create worldviews that accept cryonics as it is.
Children change their worldview. THe bible says,
"train up a child in the way he should go, and when he
is old, he will not depart from it." Folk wisdom,
that. And true, for the most part. This is another
factor in the cryonics growth curve--kids who have the
idea implanted in them that cryonics is a "good thing"
are much more likely to sign up much later on, I would
wager.
So get to kids early with pro-cryonics video, etc.
Another possible way out of the ghetto is to re-brand
cryonics as a Grand Adventure to the Future and To The
Stars. This approach would appeal to 15 to 25 year old
males, which is a likely target demographic, anyway. A
large segment of this demographic seeks out a group to
join, a grand purpose for their lives, some entity to
mold and shape them, and the more challenging,
ardurous and risky, the better. See for example the
armed forces advertisments which sell military service
as a coming of age endeavor. This drive/desire to be
part of this sort of endeavor is hardwired into young
males of 15-20 years of age or so. Helps them protect
the tribe, hunt food, etc. Evolutionary prehistoric
stuff, etc.
Cryonics is a very appropriately suited to tap into
this biological drive/demographic. But like reaching
kids, it would require money and effort. Luckily, the
internet is likely in 5 to 10 years to be able to
provide a channel to communicate ideas from a small
group of people to a large group even better than it
does now--primarily through the use of video sent over
the net to TV sets.
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