X-Message-Number: 29398
From: 
Date: Sat, 07 Apr 2007 00:34:22 -0500
Subject: Southwest USA Climate Change Threatens Alcor & Its Patients

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http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0406climate-report0406.html#

Southwest could become Dust Bowl, study warns

Shaun McKinnon
The Arizona Republic
Apr. 6, 2007 12:00 AM

Rising temperatures will fuel longer and more intense droughts across
Arizona and the Southwest, according to a new climate-change report that
warns of conditions not seen since the 1930s Dust Bowl.

What sets the report apart from others that have painted an equally bleak
future is its assertion that changes already have begun, that the state's
12-year-old drought may reflect what scientists call the new climate for
the Southwest.

The study, published today in the journal Science, arrives along with a
broader assessment of global warming by teams of international
scientists. That report, set for release this morning in Belgium, charts
a litany of ecologic and economic threats posed by greenhouse gases and
concludes that, in many areas, the threats have now become real.

Both reports attempt to inject urgency into the contentious discussion of
climate change, with authors arguing that their dire forecasts will come
true unless governments move to reduce emissions from automobiles, power
plants, factories and other sources of carbon dioxide.

A study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which produced
the international report out today, concluded earlier this year that
humans are almost certainly responsible for much of the planet's higher
temperatures.

"It's important for Americans to realize we're not going to escape the
big impacts, whether it's more hurricanes and sea-level rise in the East
or drought here in the West," said Jonathan Overpeck, director of the
University of Arizona's Institute for the Study of Planet Earth. "These
things are going to challenge business as usual and quality of life. This
should be a wake-up call."

The drought study startled some scientists with its confidence level.
Researchers from several universities and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research used 19 models, some dating to 1860, and found that
all but one pointed to the same conclusions: The Southwest will turn
drier, perhaps as soon as 2040, and will grow drier through this century
as less rain and snow falls.

"We're really talking about something we haven't seen since Europeans
came to North America," said Overpeck, who has studied climate change and
drought for many years. "We might already be in this trend toward greater
aridity in the Southwest. The end result will be average conditions that
will be like the worst drought of the 20th century."

Effects on Arizona's water

The drought study did not look at another effect of climate change, the
shortening winter snow season and shrinking runoff supply. Scientists
have spotted that trend in higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains and
the Pacific Northwest and expect it to spread.

Western states rely heavily on runoff to meet water needs. A permanent
change in flow on the Colorado River could cause shortages among users
and reduce the amount of hydroelectric power available to cool the
warming region.

In Arizona, most of the serious effects of climate change link directly
to water and drought.

With less rain and snow, forests dry up, leading to increased fire danger
and more frequent insect invasions. As runoff decreases into streams and
rivers, wildlife habitat disappears and the wildlife follow. The heat
itself will worsen air quality, allowing greater buildup of ozone as
average July and August temperatures climb by as much as 9 degrees by
2070. As the dominoes fall, the damage spreads.

A bark beetle invasion near Winslow earlier this decade virtually wiped
out a stand of pine trees, which destroyed habitat for some species.
Biologists fear the entire ecosystem will change in the coming years.

"The species we have today have evolved over several hundred years under
certain climatic conditions, in the presence of other species," said Lisa
McNeilly, northern Arizona program director for the Nature Conservancy
and a former researcher at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

"When you start changing those things quickly, it's hard to predict what
will happen," she said. "We're putting things at risk we hold dear if we
don't do something to reduce emissions."

Evidence of change

Although both the drought study and the larger international report say
climate change already has affected the environment, scientists say they
still need time to confirm that some of what is happening is not just
cyclical changes.

"Some of what's happening with the early snowmelts could be due to
variations based on ocean circulation," said Gregg Garfin, project
manager for the UA institute. "But there's a pretty large fraction that
can't be explained that way, and we think that's due to increasing
temperatures."

Evidence of climate change will help scientists understand it better,
said Netra Chhetri, an Arizona State University researcher who worked on
the international study.

"Until recently, a lot of focus in the study of climate change has been
driven by models," said Chhetri, who also teaches classes on climate
change. "But recently, some of us are beginning to look into actual
indicators, things like early arrival of growing seasons or early
flowering of trees."

More real evidence will probably drive discussion of the topic beyond
universities. Attitudes already have changed in recent years. A survey of
Arizonans by the polling company Public Opinion Strategies indicated that
two-thirds of those asked believe enough evidence exists about the threat
of global warming to spur government action. Only 15 percent in the poll
thought the issue had been exaggerated.

The next section of the international report, due next month, will focus
on what countries and individuals can do to slow climate change and adapt
to its effects.

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