X-Message-Number: 29418
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: Re: Electric supply for CI and Alcor
Date: Sat, 14 Apr 2007 08:02:56 -0700

David Stodolsky writes,

>Proven Reserves of oil have been rising thru out history and continue to do 

The General Accountabilty Office's new report about Peak Oil draws attention 
to the problems with this assumption:

CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop 
a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production
February 2007

Regarding OPEC, for example, it states that:

"Some experts believe OPEC estimates of proven reserves to be inflated. For 
example, OPEC estimates increased sharply in the 1980s, corresponding to a 
change in OPEC's quota rules that linked a member country's production quota 
in part to its remaining proven reserves. In addition, many OPEC countries' 
reported reserves remained relatively unchanged during the 1990s, even as 
they continued high levels of oil production. For example, IEA reports that 
reserves estimates in Kuwait were unchanged from 1991 to 2002, even though 
the country produced more than 8 billion barrels of oil over that period and 
did not make any important new oil discoveries."

Moreover, a fifth of the world's oil comes from about 14 super-giant fields, 
called "elephants" in the oil biz, which went into production decades ago. 
Almost all of them have passed their peak. Seven to eight percent of the 
world's oil comes from the three biggest fields -- Saudi Arabia's Ghawar, 
Mexico's Cantarell and Kuwait's Burgan -- all of which now have apparently 
entered rapid decline. Cantarell's output has collapsed by 20 percent in 
just the past year alone. Compared with these fields, the newer oil 
discoveries added to reserves look like "mice."

Mark Plus

Download Messenger. Join the i'm Initiative. Help make a difference today. 

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29418