X-Message-Number: 29447
Date: Wed, 18 Apr 2007 16:59:24 -0400
From: Francois <>
Subject: Re: Small musing about global oil reserves

>Why I spent over an hour writing this is beyond me.  Arguing with
people who
>are determined to worry is a waste of my time and energy.

Well, I'm glad you took the time, and I'm also quite happy about yours and 
David's replies. But I think both of you have missed the angle from which I 
see the problem.

First of all, technology is almost never the problem in these matters. 
Either it already exists, or it can be invented. The Appolo project, the 
building of the Panama canal or the Manhattan project are three examples of 
this. No, the problem is almost always money or political will. In the case 
of oil, the money problem will take care of itself eventually. As oil 
becomes scarcer and harder to get, its price will increase and the 
alternatives will start to look attractive. This will also take care of the 
political problem, because big business and governments will follow the 
money and start pushing in the direction of oil substitutes.

After reading this comment, you would think that I should stop worrying, 
things will work out in the end. But in this case there's another commodity 
involved, and that's time. Do we have the time to bring online the new 
energy sources we need before the ones we currently depend on run out? The 
way things are going, it will take a couple of decades before big business 
and governments finally decide that oil has no future and begin working on 
its replacement on the needed scale. My little number exercise shows how 
vast that scale is and current efforts are still, with a few exceptions, 
geared toward finding more oil instead of working on replacing it.

This is why I worry. Maybe I'm making a mistake though. When climbing a 
mountain, it is recommended to not look at the summit itself or the task 
will appear insurmountable. One should look instead at the next rock one 
needs to grab to climb the next step, and the next, and the next. Before you 
realize it, you have reached the summit. Maybe I should start looking at the 
problem that way. It's just that there doesn't seem to be anybody at all 
climbing the mountain right now.


Francois

Good health is merely the slowest
possible rate at which one can die. 

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