X-Message-Number: 29634
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: Skeptic magazine argues for the antisingularity
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2007 19:24:00 -0700

Skeptic magazine, edited by Michael Shermer, has taken a definitely critical 
stance towards the claims of transhumanism and singularitarianism in recent 
years. I support that effort, because we need to weed out the dumb 
transhumanist ideas as quickly as possible so we can try to replace them 
with better ones.

The current issue has an article by Mordechai Ben-Ari titled, "The End of 
Science Revisited: The Case for Incrementalism in the Future of Science." 
I've scanned it, and you can download the Adobe file from this link:

http://www.box.net/shared/ty7bxa0zv6

Ben-Ari states,

"I am not arguing that scientific progres will cease; instead, I am raising 
grave doubts that revolutions in scientific knowledge will occur, certainly 
not at an accelerated pace nor even at the rate of the past century and a 
half. In fact, I perceive only two gaps in our knowledge that could lead to 
revolutions: the relation between quantum mechanics and general relativity, 
and the biology of cognitive processes. However, the latter is likely to be 
solved within current biochemisry and biophysics, and while the former may 
result in significant new theories, it will not count as a revolution 
because it will not lead to new technological capabilities nor will it have 
a significant philosophical impact.

"This review shows that technology has been surprisingly stagnant during the 
past half century. The two areas that showed revolutionary change - light 
processing and computers - are not based upon new science, and are showing 
signs of having run their course of accelerated growth.

"These conclusions have a significant consequence: We must deal with our 
problems within the current framework of science and technology. We will not 
solve overpopulation by colonizing distant galaxies; we will not eliminate 
poverty and disease through hitherto unimaginable ways of growing food; a 
miraculous source of energy will not be discovered and pollution will not 
magically disappear; we cannot ignore the possible damages that can be 
caused by climate change in the hope that they will be eliminated or 
mitigated by revolutionary scientific progress. Science and technology can 
and will contribute to solving problems by incremental improvements, but 
accelerationists who purvey utopian visions are causing serious damage to 
our future."

Well, that would explain why the 21st Century stubbornly refuses to look as 
"futuristic" as I would have expected.

"There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in 
all manner of nonsense." (Narim on "Stargate SG-1")

Mark Plus

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