X-Message-Number: 29634 From: "Mark Plus" <> Subject: Skeptic magazine argues for the antisingularity Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2007 19:24:00 -0700 Skeptic magazine, edited by Michael Shermer, has taken a definitely critical stance towards the claims of transhumanism and singularitarianism in recent years. I support that effort, because we need to weed out the dumb transhumanist ideas as quickly as possible so we can try to replace them with better ones. The current issue has an article by Mordechai Ben-Ari titled, "The End of Science Revisited: The Case for Incrementalism in the Future of Science." I've scanned it, and you can download the Adobe file from this link: http://www.box.net/shared/ty7bxa0zv6 Ben-Ari states, "I am not arguing that scientific progres will cease; instead, I am raising grave doubts that revolutions in scientific knowledge will occur, certainly not at an accelerated pace nor even at the rate of the past century and a half. In fact, I perceive only two gaps in our knowledge that could lead to revolutions: the relation between quantum mechanics and general relativity, and the biology of cognitive processes. However, the latter is likely to be solved within current biochemisry and biophysics, and while the former may result in significant new theories, it will not count as a revolution because it will not lead to new technological capabilities nor will it have a significant philosophical impact. "This review shows that technology has been surprisingly stagnant during the past half century. The two areas that showed revolutionary change - light processing and computers - are not based upon new science, and are showing signs of having run their course of accelerated growth. "These conclusions have a significant consequence: We must deal with our problems within the current framework of science and technology. We will not solve overpopulation by colonizing distant galaxies; we will not eliminate poverty and disease through hitherto unimaginable ways of growing food; a miraculous source of energy will not be discovered and pollution will not magically disappear; we cannot ignore the possible damages that can be caused by climate change in the hope that they will be eliminated or mitigated by revolutionary scientific progress. Science and technology can and will contribute to solving problems by incremental improvements, but accelerationists who purvey utopian visions are causing serious damage to our future." Well, that would explain why the 21st Century stubbornly refuses to look as "futuristic" as I would have expected. "There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in all manner of nonsense." (Narim on "Stargate SG-1") Mark Plus _________________________________________________________________ Don't get caught with egg on your face. Play Chicktionary! http://club.live.com/chicktionary.aspx?icid=chick_hotmailtextlink2 Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29634