X-Message-Number: 29652
References: <>
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: 20 more years?
Date: Tue, 17 Jul 2007 18:31:04 +0200

On 17 Jul 2007, at 16:07, Aubrey de Grey wrote:

> The
> main thing I doubt is the relevance of the contemporary "regulatory  
> time
> lag."

If this was the only hold up, then you would have a point. However,  
the problem seems to be deeply imbedded in the Abrahamic traditions.  
Therefore, we also have opposition to stem cell research, etc.

The most obvious sign of this bias is the waste of hundreds of  
billions of dollars a year on improving methods for killing people.  
The fact that there is no 'enemy' doesn't seem to have any effect on  
this madness. People in the US and elsewhere always prefer spending  
on medical advances over military technology, however, the money, for  
the most part, continues to go to the merchants of death.

The continuing and worsening, in some cases, poverty situation is  
another major killer. However, short-term interests of a small group  
of super rich people effectively block any real change in this area.  
The effect is to leave half of the population in third world  
countries in a state of illness. This could easily be treated, or  
better yet, prevented by improving clean water availability.

Any calculations of lives lost vs. saved by quicker regulatory  
approval is lost in the error variance in comparison to the major  
sources of premature death.  And the loss of vast populations of  
potential researchers impedes progress massively. A cultural shift is  
the only thing that can dramatically effect the life expectancies of  
the current population. A trillion a year shifted to medical research  
could be helpful.


dss


David Stodolsky    Skype: davidstodolsky

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