X-Message-Number: 29707
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: Re: SIAI Promotes Singularity
Date: Mon, 06 Aug 2007 09:19:38 -0700

In Cryonet # 29703, David Stodolsky writes,

>'True' AI has been just around the corner for about 50 years now, and there 
>is no evidence that a 'breakthru' is going to happen anytime soon. I am not 
>referring to any technical problems, but the entire approach. The field of 
>AI was created by Computer Scientists so they could get their own pot of 
>money separate from that given to psychologists/neurologist who were 
>already studying the problem.  There is little evidence that this has 
>accomplished much, except the promotion of some peoples' careers at the 
>expense of others.

You have to wonder about a project which started literally at the time of 
Harry S Truman's presidency (with Alan Turing's famous 1950 paper), has 
consumed billions of dollars and the entire careers of some very smart 
people, yet still hasn't shown much progress towards its most important 
goals. AI researcher Marvin Minsky, who turns 80 this Thursday, must wonder 
now what he's spent his life doing. Contrast AI theorists with the people 
who went into molecular biology in that same era and left us with something 
to show for their efforts.

Skeptic magazine published a critical review of the AI field a year or two 
back which supports Stodolsky's negative assessment:

A.I. Gone Awry
The Futile Quest for Artificial Intelligence
by Peter Kassan

http://www.skeptic.com/the_magazine/featured_articles/v12n02_AI_gone_awry.html

or my pdf version of that webpage:

http://www.box.net/shared/static/jernl31fff.pdf

>The whole concept of the 'singularity' is based in science fiction, not 
>science fact.

And eventually the "singularity" will llook like another example of what 
some now call the "paleo-future," as the real 21st Century increasingly 
diverges from 20th Century science fictional and futurological fantasies 
about it.

"There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in 
all manner of nonsense." (Narim on "Stargate SG-1")

Mark Plus

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