X-Message-Number: 29751 From: Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2007 10:30:21 EDT Subject: Science, Timelines, and Breakthroughs vs. Widespread Applicat... In a message dated 8/19/2007 5:00:50 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time, writes: OK, sorry. I'll calm down a little about the overlyoptimistic timeline. But don't you understand that realistic timelines are one of the most important issues in cryonics? If we claim to believe in such an unrealistic timeline, then we lose all credibility. Credibility is very important to me. By far the most sensible approach is to go with the timeline that 99% of cryobiologists accept, which is that it won't happen for many decades. I didn't say centuries, I just said many decades. I don't know which scientists you talked to or which magazines you read. But even you will have to admit that your prediction disagrees with the consensus of the scientific community. Jordan Sparks Hello, Jordan, I accept your apology. And, I certainly do concede that 2018 for some small multicellular animal and 2035 for some type of suspended animation is perhaps overoptimistic, and probably far from the consensus view of cryobiologists. On the other hand, most mainstream geneticists were making very credible pronouncements in the late 90s about how cloning mammals was a virtual impossibility or would only occur many decades in the future. Dolly the cloned sheep proved these folks were a bit off the mark. There were credible estimates of the human genome project which had multidecade timelines. But progress...and competition, and bragging rights enabled this massive undertaking to be completed some time ago. I could google for the references above, or other rather humorous "experts" gravely pronouncing the impossibility of flying machines or moon landings, but the above are two RECENT events that most of have followed with interest, and most of us on this list have personal REMEMBRANCE of the "credible experts" explaining why "it can't be done." The other thing I should have clarified, and should be clarified relating to cloning or the human genome project, is that an experimental result is just the BEGINNING, and a long way from general application. In other words, we may have cloned sheep, cows, and other animals, but we do NOT have growable livers or kidneys, which legitimately could and probably WILL take decades. Especially in medical advances, it is patently and sometimes tragically demonstrable that even genuine and undisputable advances take decades to filter down. We may have sequenced the human genome, but the real "heavy lifting" of gene manipulation and protein folding and APPLICATION remains potentially decades away. So, Jordan and others, I should have made it clear that no one who is scientifically literate would expect the individuals being cryonically suspended by today's technology are likely be resuscitated by 2018 or 2035. And, for the record, I will match my level of skepticism and genuine scientific orientation against most, but not all, of the readers of cryonet. And, yes, I agree that credibility is important, even vital, if cryonics people are to have influence in the larger world. Respectfully Submitted, Rudi Rudi Richard Hoffman CFP CLU ChFC Board Member Financial Planning Association fpafla.org Board Member Salvation Army salvationarmy.org Member Alcor Life Extension Foundation alcor.org Certified Financial Planner(TM) CFP Board of Standards Member Libertarian Party libertarianparty.org Member National Rifle Association nra.org Member World Transhumanist Association http://transhumanism.org/ World's Leading Cryonics Insurance Provider rudihoffman.com ************************************** Get a sneak peek of the all-new AOL at http://discover.aol.com/memed/aolcom30tour Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" [ AUTOMATICALLY SKIPPING HTML ENCODING! ] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29751