X-Message-Number: 29769
References: <>
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: Cryonics and life extension progress, STILL a worthwihile...
Date: Fri, 24 Aug 2007 16:03:50 +0200

On 23 Aug 2007, at 14:17,  wrote:

> I am reminded of a quote by a neuroscientist asked when their   
> research would
> have practical applications.  "After 10 or 15 years of  finding,  
> "It's more
> complicated than we thought, one begins to see a pattern  emerge.  
> It's ALWAYS
> more complicated than we thought!"

There has been some research on this. The general rule used to be,  
"We overestimate where we will be in 5 years and underestimate where  
we will be in 10 years." That was 40 years ago, so there might be  
some more recent research on this question.

The underestimation comes from failing to foresee complications. The  
overestimate probably comes from the failure to see the effects of  
synergy in (at this time) remote developments.



> And, for the record, (and to create a bit of worthwhile   
> controversy) I stick
> to my timeline prediction of 2018 for a small multicelluar  animal  
> and 2035
> for a laboratory conditions cryonics human  resuscitation.

This is not going to create worth while controversy. It just cements  
your continuing failure to identify unbiased sources.

No one is concerned with your record in making predictions about  
something you have no back ground in.


dss



David Stodolsky    Skype: davidstodolsky

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