X-Message-Number: 29800
References: <>
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: Science, Timelines, and Breakthroughs vs. Widespread Appl...
Date: Thu, 30 Aug 2007 18:02:12 +0200

On 20 Aug 2007, at 16:30,  wrote:

> I could google for the references above, or other rather humorous   
> "experts"
> gravely pronouncing the impossibility of flying machines or moon   
> landings,
> but the above are two RECENT events that most of have followed  
> with  interest,
> and most of us on this list have personal REMEMBRANCE of the "credible
> experts" explaining why "it can't be done."

We have to distinguish between 'what is possible' and 'what is  
impossible' predictions. As pointed out here, when experts make the  
second type of predictions, they aren't worth much. However, when  
they make the first type, they almost always correct.

This observation must be adjusted for predictions with commercial  
implications, which should generally be disregarded, unless the wrong  
output can sent the author to jail, as in stock offers, etc.


dss


David Stodolsky    Skype: davidstodolsky

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