X-Message-Number: 30051
References: <>
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: Cryonics market (was fear of death)
Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2007 20:40:48 +0100

On 20 Nov 2007, at 18:20, hkhenson wrote:

>
> Any suggestion, David, as to a social scientist might consider the  
> problem?

I am qualified and have been working on it in my spare time. However,  
I have gotten as far as I can without financial support.


>
>> The question is not
>> just one of marketing, but of survival, once cryonics becomes a
>> political issue.
>
> To some extent it already has. In the last few years both CI and
> Alcor came under attack as an indirect result of a famous baseball
> player's suspension.
>
>> This is not just a threat to potential patients,
>> but  to all in suspension when the issue gets big.
>
> To analyze how serious this is we need to consider the speed with
> which social movements grow and how fast developing technology might
> bring an end to the need for cryonics. I could put numbers on these,
> others have, there is no way to test the accuracy except by the
> passage of time.

Social movements normally have an isolationist stage and then  
transition into being mass movements. So, there is no fixed rate of  
growth, but very slow growth at first, then a spurt, and then slow  
growth. The transition into a mass movement could occur at any time.  
Economic factors are in favor of offering cryonic suspension to the  
very sick in the advanced countries, since it would save money.  
Therefore, the barrier is cultural.

Even if the current continuous exponential growth continues, the  
membership will be 5 billion by 2074. (5 million in 2044 with a 3  
year doubling rate:

http://cryin.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$52


Technological progress tends to be more uniform. We have been seeing  
1/4 year increase in life expectancy per year since 1839. Therefore,  
it will be a long time before there is no need for suspension. Life  
expectation will only be increased by 17 years in 2074. So even with  
a conservative assumption about growth of the movement, we don't have  
to worry much about the need for suspension being gone before  
membership becomes politically dominant.


dss




David Stodolsky    Skype: davidstodolsky

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=30051