X-Message-Number: 30209
From: 
Date: Tue, 25 Dec 2007 13:59:04 EST
Subject: Ai and rogue states

>Jack  Williamson's "The Humanoids" is a fine dystopian story in which a   
>powerful AI charged to "Protect" humans becomes a patronizing monster  that
>won't  
>allow you to do anything that might be  "harmful". A good read, from around

>1950.

>Because of a  thousand such science fiction stories stretching over nearly  a

>century, it is unlikely that an AI will be given physical power  or contact 
>with  the outside world through the  Net.

>Alan

I am not too worried about dangerous AI, but I  also don't buy your
prediction, Alan.  How tight of control do you  imagine rational people will
have in the future?  

To me your  statement is like saying "Because of a thousand such science
fiction  stories about nuclear holocaust stretching over nearly a century, it
is  unlikely that dangerous governments will be given access to  nuclear
weapons"

I think that if horses exist, one will eventually  get out the barn.

Someone, somewhere will eventually say to themselves,  "If I just give this
AI a little more independence, or make it a little  more aggressive, or
connect it to more sources of information, or all  three, it may be much more
effective.  Let's try it."  And those  are the good guys!  No telling what
the bad guys might do with  powerful AI.




______________
 
You are right that a North Korea is capable of bad judgement, and that is a  
concern. I believe, though, that rational advanced countries are likely to  
develop advanced AI first and use it responsibly to get way, way ahead of the  
rogue states. Also the advanced states will use, not AI programs but advanced  
dedicated programs to infiltrate the crazies' computer systems  and spy on 
them. And countries like N.K. are slipping back towards  cannibalism, and not 

likely to have good AI development programs. After all, it  was about six 
decades 
after the US/UK had developed the atom bomb and the  secrets had leaked out, 
that Pakistan developed one and N.K. set off an  explosion so weak it is not 
clear the nuclear part even detonated.
 
All that said, you do have a good point. It's a danger we should watch  for.
 
Alan



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