X-Message-Number: 30501
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2008 13:28:57 EST
Subject: Re: CryoNet #30481 Cryonauts' expiration date?

Mark Plus _ (mailto:)  :
I guess that  means cryonics organizations no longer plan to keep patients in 
suspension for  multiple centuries, if necessary, until somebody can figure 
out how to revive  us. Have the leaders in the cryonics movement adopted part 
of the  limits-to-progress thesis that seems to explain our relatively 
unfuturistic  21st Century? 

"Around 2010 the world will be at a new orbit in  history. . .  Life 

expectancy will be indefinite. Disease and disability  will nonexist. Death wll 
rare and accidental -- but not permanent. We will  continuously jettison our 
obsolescence and grow younger." F.M. Esfandiary,  "Up-Wing Priorities" (1981).
Mark Plus

I think the limit of progress is a religious-like attitude. I have studied  
what happen in the airplane sector, in the fifties there was talks about  

hypersonic scramjet and London New York transport in two hours. This was b  ased
flawed understanding of the problems to solve, my study of the question  
gives a time frame near 2100 at best for such a system.
Cryonics is in the same pool of bad predictions, you could think of the  

phenomenon as a quasi fractal line, if you go straight, a short distance seems  
bring you at a looked for position. On the contrairy, when you take into  
account all the convoluted line, you see that there is a large distance from  

start to arrival. This is not a lack of progress, simply you have not to take it
along the direct line.
A prerequisite for any cryonics revival is a control of matter at atomic  

level, think of that as .1 nm, the best electronics is now at 30 nm. In the 80's
the scale limit was 1 micrometer or 1000 nm. The gain is a factor 30 in 30  

years, count at least 50 years to get the next 300 factor, then it will be time
 to move from 2 to 3 dimensions, from near action to remote one, from small  
objects to full body,... I would be surprised if all of that could be done in  
the last fifty years of the century. Two centuries seem a better time  frame.
The F.M. Esfandiary "prediction" looks as a political blurb : With the end  
of Soviet Union and communism, everything will be perfect, it will be the end 
of  history... This is mere stupidity.
Yvan Bozzonetti.


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