X-Message-Number: 31059
From: "John de Rivaz" <>
References: <>
Subject: Re: emergency plans
Date: Tue, 16 Sep 2008 11:28:55 +0100


As is often the case, the problem is not the disease, but the treatment. Avian 
flu was mentioned, and the "natural treatment" is that provided by the immune 
system, - the cytokine storm. 
http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Science.PrimerCytokineStorm It is that that 
kills those with strong immune systems. Those more elderly people with weaker 
immune systems have a better chance of survival. As happens with man-made 
chemotherapy, in many instances it is the treatment that kills.


In the case of geophysical events such as slightly increased solar output, the 
reaction of government is analogous. There is no government on Mars and Titan, 
so the warming said to be going on there will be less dramatic :-)


In the case of financial events, the real estate and banking bubble bursting is 
likely to cause more governmental reaction than when the dot com bubble burst, 
and took technology stocks with it. It is, however, worth noting that many 
technology companies such as Intel survived, and Google is doing well despite 
joining the market after the dot com bubble. Similarly many banks will survive 
albeit at stock quotations well below their 2008 peak. 


The greater difficulty is when people capable of repaying their mortgage 
payments are told to produce more collateral when their house price has fallen. 
If they can't then they run the risk of being thrown out and the house sold at a
rock bottom price saddling them with no home and also a huge debt. But there is
safety in numbers, and directors of mortgage companies may well go against 
their legal departments' advice and not ask for more collateral, because such 
action amongst so many people would cause further market collapse.


Such problems have been predicted from as long ago as the 1980s, with books like
THE DOWNWAVE: SURVIVING THE SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION.  $3.60
http://www.amazon.com/DOWNWAVE-SURVIVING-SECOND-GREAT-DEPRESSION/dp/033028178X


Advice given then was decades ahead of its time, and anyone reading it and 
taking it in 1983 when the book was published, would have lost virtually all 
their assets. House prices rose for nearly three more decades - if you sold you 
hose then and rented, you'd never have afforded another after a quarter of a 
century of inflation, even after the current crash. Unfortunately there is 
little point in reading the book now except from curiosity, as no financial 
advice is any use after such events.

-- 
Sincerely, John de Rivaz:  http://John.deRivaz.com for websites including
Cryonics Europe, Longevity Report, The Venturists, Porthtowan, Alec Harley
Reeves - inventor, Arthur Bowker - potter, de Rivaz genealogy,  Nomad .. and
more

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