X-Message-Number: 31595
From: Mark Plus <>
Subject: Arthur C. Clarke's bad futurology
Date: Wed, 8 Apr 2009 19:03:15 -0700


Clarke wrote the following circa 40 years ago in his essay "The Mind of the 
Machine," during an earlier period of AI apocalypticism which sounds strangely 
familiar today. It provides an example of why "futurology" has fallen into 
disrepute these days:


"Education is ultimately the key to survival in the coming world of 
ultraintelligent machines. The truly educated man (I have been lucky enough to 
meet two in my lifetime) can never be bored. The problem that has to be tackled 
within the next fifty years is to bring the entire human race, without 
exception, up to the level of the semiliteracy of the average college graduate. 
This represents what way be called the minimum survival level; only if we reach 
it will we have a sporting change of seeing the year 2000."


Building ultraintelligent machines? Bringing up the entire human race to the 
semiliterate level of the the average college graduate? And we'll have to 
accomplish these things by that mysterious, far-future year 2000 or we could 
face our doom?


Clarke, like a lot of other trendy 20th Century "futurists," generated what one 
critic of transhumanism calls "superlativity" rhetoric about Future World 
because he underestimated humanity's ability to muddle through at a low level of
efficiency.


Ironically Clarke lived to see part of his view of Future World become Past 
World when the Apollo program came and went without leading to any further 
progress in manned space travel.

Mark Plus

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