X-Message-Number: 31634
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Cryonics Institute growth slows
Date: Sat, 25 Apr 2009 11:38:59 +0200

Earlier, I analyzed the growth of the Cryonics Institute and concluded  
it had a doubling time of about three years from 1998 to 2004. I  
stated "If this faster growth rate continues, member population will  
be over five million in 2044, with an increase of about 1.2 million in  
that year."


However, analysis of the monthly growth data from 1 May 2006 to 1  
April 2009 shows that this exponential growth has ceased. The best fit  
to this data is linear, with a growth of 5.8 members/month or 69.6  
members/year. If this continues, in 2044 membership will be only 3,296  
(=790 + 2505).

If this new trend holds, then cryonics will continue to be an  
inconsequential movement and will be subject to the whims of political  
will and to economic uncertainties well beyond 2044. That is, it will  
not have achieved the size needed to influence sociopolitical events,  
except in a minor way.

The data for suspendees has likewise become linear. This suggests the  
change is a robust finding.


David Stodolsky
  Skype: davidstodolsky

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