X-Message-Number: 31638
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: 60 years on, 60 years back
Date: Sun, 26 Apr 2009 14:50:14 +0200
References: <>

On 26 Apr 2009, at 11:00 AM, John de Rivaz wrote:

> 60 years ago the progress in computers that actually happened would  
> have been the speculation of eccentrics, yet it was widely believed  
> that by the beginning of the next millennium most people would have  
> private aircraft. Sci fi writers such as Bradbury and Heinlein were  
> even writing about private space vehicles, capable to getting to  
> Mars and even further, being available by 2000. This could have been  
> an extrapolation from the rapid advance in cars from 1900 to 1930.

It is probably more instructive to analyze the cause of the delays in  
space transportation than just noting what the writers said was off.  
The 1960's space race was a one-trick pony and when men landed on the  
Moon, the US had recovered its status. The Space Program was  
effectively closed down by budget cuts. This led to money saving  
strategies and the resulting disasters among other things. For  
example, the last NASA supported hibernation/suspension research  
ceased at the beginning of the 1980's. Given the political will, we  
could very well have achieved what the writers predicted and perhaps  
be a lot closer to reversal of human suspension today.

The other obvious variable is the number of scientists. A vast number  
of potential scientists live in countries so poor that they never even  
get an education. Even in the rich countries, hard sciences are  
loosing ground. The only bright spot on the horizon is the millions of  
new scientists coming on-line (publishing) in China. Taking all this  
into account, I'd say we probably have only had ten per cent of  
scientists in action compared to our potential as a civilization. So,  
it is the political-economic factors that have been the main  
determinant of progress.


dss


David Stodolsky
  Skype: davidstodolsky

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