X-Message-Number: 31653
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: Membership Growth: Alcor and the Cryonics Institute
Date: Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:38:23 +0200
References: <>

On 28 Apr 2009, at 11:00 AM, CryoNet wrote:

>  Year__Alcor_____CI
>
> 2000____41_______42
>
> 2001____39_______62
>
> 2002____44_______63
>
> 2003____50_______76
>
> 2004____52_______63
>
> 2005____73_______100__CI-CRYO_CI-SA
>
> 2006____28_______76____40______20
>
> 2007____24_______69____37______22
>
> 2008____37_______58____36______19


This data is noisy. The only thing that is significant (at p<.05 or  
even at p<.10) is the CI membership data. What it shows is that the  
increases in new members/year peaked in 2004 and then started dropping  
at an accelerating pace [1.8*(Year-2004)^2, that is, 1.8 times the  
square of the number of years from 2004]. The 2005 datum is larger  
than the 2004 data point, due in part to a non-significant linear  
trend of +2.25/year. After that year, when the quadratic effect was  
very small (more then cancelled by the linear trend), all figures are  
at or lower than those of earlier years. So, it gives a lot worst  
picture than my earlier estimate based on CI monthly data. The ALCOR  
data show the same result as trends.

The only factor that I can think of that could account for this was  
the political situation in the US. The Bush Gang pumped billions of  
dollars into 'faith-based' organizations and ran a religiously-based  
hate champaign, which emphasized the importance of religion in  
people's minds and led to increased religiosity worldwide. As the  
Badger data shows, religiosity is the best predictor of interest in  
cryonics. It is interesting that the drop starts after the 2004  
election year, during which the Bush propaganda was at its peak and  
played an important role in the Bush victory.

So, I once again emphasize that the cryonics movement needs to have  
adequate data to predict trends that could have an impact on growth  
and maybe even on survival. The result above predicts zero growth  
around 2008, if the trend had continued. Eight more years of the "War  
on Terror" could have meant a loss of members, reaching about 181 lost  
in the last year of that Administration. Without the CI monthly data,  
we would be facing a very bleak future. Even my prediction of linear  
growth is a long way from the potential, if we accept the earlier  
results of exponential growth as a real possibility. It is imperative  
that we understand what is causing these changes. At the moment, the  
cryonics movement is flying blindly into the future. If this data  
tells us anything, it is that political developments could easily lead  
to disaster, even if they don't result in direct attacks on the  
organizations. We have seen those too and without a large membership  
to help in a crisis, we could face a loss of suspendees and/or  
organizational collapse.


dss

David Stodolsky
  Skype: davidstodolsky

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