X-Message-Number: 31663
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: Re: Membership Growth: Alcor and the Cryonics Institute
Date: Sat, 2 May 2009 10:16:41 +0200
References: <>

On 30 Apr 2009, at 11:00 AM, CryoNet wrote:

>
> I think that the growth of the Internet has been the most
> prominent factor in the history of CI Membership growth.
> I think that this reached its peak in 2003. There was a
> definite flattening of number of users per 100 inhabitants
> in the "developed world" in 2004.
>

> 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_users_per_100_inhabitants_1997-2007_ITU.png

This picture shows relatively small changes in slope. 02-03 and 04  
forward have slightly less rapid growth than the earlier years, and  
especially 03-04. I doubt this could have the kind of effect we are  
talking about here - linear vs. exponential. However, as I stated in  
my earlier analysis:

http://cryin.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$52

CI coming on the net appears to have led to a change in the rate of  
growth.


It is difficult to identify the impact of various factors without a  
rich set of data and an understanding of the underlying growth  
tendencies. The key question is whether that underlying growth is  
linear or exponential, as earlier assumed. If we look at the entire  
history of CI membership, an exponential fit is much better than  
linear growth (this refers to the entire population, not yearly change  
figures.) The same is true for only 1985 forward. ALCOR data forward  
from the mass exodus (1996-2008) also is best fitted by an exponential  
curve. However, for both ALCOR (1996-2008) and CI (1998-2008), a  
linear fit is superior. If we exclude the 'bad' years of 2005-2008,  
then the exponential fit is slightly better for both ALCOR (1996-2004)  
and CI (1998-2004). So, the best evidence we have is that exponential  
growth is the norm, but political events can dramatically effect  
membership growth, at least for a while. On the other hand, if this  
change to linear growth has a continuing character, then the movement  
is facing serious problems.

If we look at CI suspendees (1998-2008), however, the exponential fit  
continues to be better thru the 'bad' years.

We can't interpret the effect of media events without much more  
detailed data. It appears they lead to more inquiries, but will this  
effect growth, especially in the long run?


dss

David Stodolsky
  Skype: davidstodolsky

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