X-Message-Number: 31665
Date: Sat, 02 May 2009 20:09:15 -0400
From: 
Subject: Re: Membership Growth: Alcor and the Cryonics Institute

   David Stodolsky wrote:
>


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_users_per_100_inhabitants_1997-2007_ITU.png
>
> This picture shows relatively small changes in slope. 02-03 and 04   
> forward have slightly less rapid growth than the earlier years, and   
> especially 03-04. I doubt this could have the kind of effect we are   
> talking about here - linear vs. exponential.

   I think that you go way overboard in trying to do
curve-fitting without proper analysis of the underlying
phenomenon.  Looking at the actual numbers makes a big
difference. In the linear internet growth from 2001 to 2004
the numbers went from 36 to 54 per 100 inhabitants, an increase
of 18. The increase in the previous 3 years was 19. In the
3 years from 2004 to 2007 the increase was 10, to 62 per
100 inhabitants. When saturation gets that high the
non-participants are increasingly infants, drunks and
the demented. The early adapters were the most technophilic,
and the people who most readily attracted to cryonics.
Most of the Members CI gets discover us through the
internet, either directly or indirectly.

> If we look at the entire history of CI membership, an exponential  
> fit is much better than linear growth

In the period from 1976 to 1993 CI growth was in the
single digits. This accounts for the largest part of
CI history.

The surge in Membership growth in 2005 for both
Alcor and CI due to the event of the New York
Times article distorts your efforts to analyze
through curve-fitting.

     -- Ben Best

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