X-Message-Number: 32345 Date: Fri, 29 Jan 2010 18:32:30 -0700 Subject: Re: Life is short and brutal. From: MARK PLUS <> In Cryonet #32338, J Coetzee writes: >Wake up! Forget the ideas of Audrey de Gray. He is a piper leading millions to their doom. Dump those vitamins in the trash. Your death is waiting around the next corner. We've already seen the discrediting of the anti-aging "experts" back in the 1970's who predicted that we could throw away the actuarial tables by now instead of our vitamins. Bohemians on the fringes of cryonics back then like Robert Anton Wilson, Timothy Leary and F.M. Esfandiary helped to popularize these forecasts. Several years ago Thomas Donaldson made an analogy between aging research and the history of astronomy. Because planets appear to move so slowly relative to observational conditions on Earth, it took the efforts of generations of astronomers, across a succession of civilizations, before scientists starting in the 17th Century could formulate an adequate model of planetary motion. Because already humans live longer than most other mammals, Donaldson analogizes, it will probably take several generations' worth of effort before scientists can accumulate enough data to formulate an adequate theory of aging. Then it will take even more decades to see if interventions into the human aging process work to extend maximum life expectancy. Those predictions from the 1970's that we'd have 300 year life expectancies by now never made sense any way. Someone born in 1980 would have to survive to the year 2280 before other people alive in that year would have that knowledge; we have no way of acquiring that knowledge in the year 2010. The preponderance of evidence still supports the validity of the actuarial tables in predicting the life expectancies of currently living people. By contrast, Donaldson says, we can perform experiments in the cryopreservation of the brain and derive useful data in a matter of days. So I agree with Coetzee that we should make cryonics research a priority and not chase after the "actuarial escape velocity" mirage. Reference: Why Cryonics Will Probably Help You More Than Antiaging, by Thomas Donaldson http://www.depressedmetabolism.com/why-cryonics-will-probably-help-you-more-than-antiaging/ Mark Plus Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=32345