X-Message-Number: 32348
From: David Stodolsky <>
Subject: CI growth rate decreasing?
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2010 22:23:49 +0100

I placed estimates of CI growth, based upon the data thru 2004 on this  
page:

http://cryin.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$52


Using the more conservative 17%/year estimated growth rate (the  
1998-2004 rate was 23%/year):

127 suspendees predicted by 2010.1.1
  85 suspendees actual by 2010.1.1
(Ten patients received from the American Cryonics Society in 2004 are  
not included. Thus 58 suspendees on 2005.1.1 and 85 suspendees on  
2010.1.1)

1044 total members predicted by 2010.1.1
  833 total members actual by 2010.1.1
(476 members on 20041.1)


Growth in suspendees is only 67% of expected.
Growth in members is only 80% of expected.

When I compared exponential and linear growth for 1998 thru 2008,  
linear growth appeared to be a better fit and this trend continues.  
This suggests that some change has taken place in recent years to  
reduce the growth rate.

I have suggested two possible sources for this change. First, we have  
run out of atheist millionaires in the USA, the main source of CI  
suspendees. Second, the surge in spirituality/religiosity in the USA  
during the last 10 to 15 years has reduced the total number of persons  
considering suspension.


dss


David Stodolsky
  Skype: davidstodolsky

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