X-Message-Number: 32356
From: "John de Rivaz" <>
References: <>
Subject: Re: Organic progress model versus the Drunkard's Walk 
Date: Wed, 3 Feb 2010 17:45:42 -0000

As far as rockets are concerned, I am wondering whether the lack of 
enthusiasm is because that although they do the job, they are really quite 
impractical on an econmic basis for getting out of gravity wells. Clarke's 
idea of the space elevator seemed like a wild fantasy at the time of 
inception, but nanotechnology has made it look more of a possibility. The 
trouble is, that it could still be too long for most aspiring astronauts 
alive today before the materials are found to implement it.

There is a similar parallel with cures for aging. Heroic surgery is a bit 
like rockets - expensive and capable for helping only a few people, and not 
achieving much in terms of maximum lifespan. With the passing years, 
nanotechnological methods are looking more feasible. But they are too late 
for those alive today.

Consider the history of the automobile. The first internal combusion engine 
driven vehicle appeared in 1807
http://www.cybersteering.com/trimain/history/ecars.html#3
A modern reconstruction of the vehicle was said to be almost impossible to 
drive. The idea was probably considered totally impractical by those living 
in the early 19th century. Horses eat grass rather than need fuel, can look 
where they are going, and go faster than that car. It was over a hundred 
years before it developed into a popular product. Even then Dr Benz felt 
that only 2000 or so people in the entire world would be capable of driving 
one of his.

Humans may well venture into space and live indefinitely - but not current 
generations, unless cryonics works, both legally and scientifically.

-- 
Sincerely, John de Rivaz:  http://John.deRivaz.com for websites including
Cryonics Europe, Longevity Report, The Venturists, Porthtowan, Alec Harley
Reeves - inventor, Arthur Bowker - potter, de Rivaz genealogy,  Nomad .. and
more

----- Original Message ----- 
<del>The Obama Administration's relinquishment of manned space travel, a
key component in the progress mythology from way back, suggests that
the drunkard's walk better fits the data than the organic model. Human
civilization has no more inherent reason to keep building rockets and
sending men into orbit than it had to keep building pyramids.
<del> 

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