X-Message-Number: 32809
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2010 07:57:54 -0700
Subject: Re: [LongevityReport] "Nano-nonsense: 25 years of charlatanry...
From: MARK PLUS <>

In Cryonet #32803, John de Rivaz writes:

>The world's first car appeared around 1800. A replica built a few years ago
was virtually impossible to control, so articles could have appeared for
nearly 100 years suggesting that "horseless carriages" were an idea that
would never bear fruit. [etc.]

I don't understand the relevance of your examples to Locklin's
critique. The prototypes of the inventions you mention worked, which
shows that they didn't incorporate mistaken assumptions about physics.
Drexler's speculations haven't even gotten to that level yet.

By contrast, look at all the inventions which progressed quickly. For
example, the laser, the weak cousin to science fiction's "death ray,"
went from a laboratory curiosity in 1960 to a powerful and versatile
tool in science, medicine and engineering in just a handful of years
because it exploits correct principles of physics.


>Steam engines appeared two millenia ago - Hero's Engine. Philosophers no doubt 
made similar remarks about their lack of torque and therefore practicability.

Again, ancient steam engines worked, and under a different set of
conditions the Roman world could have industrialized. Instead the
steam engine had to wait through a succession of civilizations and
dark ages before it became "steam engine time." Assuming that we'll
need a steam engine analogue for revival, but that this technology
won't arrive for 2,000 years or more, do you propose that cryonics
organizations could continue to exist and keep people in suspension
that long and in the face of recurring Mad Max eras?

I detect fallacious sunk costs reasoning in defense of Drexler's
speculations. I have no emotional investment in Drexler's reputation,
and if his ideas suck, we'd do cryonics a disservice by continuing to
invest our money and hopes in them instead of looking for better
ideas.

-- 
Mark Plus
Life is short: Freeze hard!

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