X-Message-Number: 32934
From: "John de Rivaz" <>
Subject: vapour technologies
Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2010 10:46:36 +0100


Whether something is a vapour technology or not very much depends on historical 
perspective. A true breakthrough technology is often derided by contemporaries, 
with convincing argument at the time.


It also depends on the possible uses. Powered flight is still a vapour 
technology in terms of flying machines for the masses. (You can't use a 
microlight to do the shopping or commute to work.) Ray Bradbury wrote  in one of
his stories suggesting that by the 1980s people would own space ships in their 
garages like they owned cars in the 1940s. 


Arthur Clarke predicted huge luxurious government owned space vehicles by 2001 
when in reality 2000 heralded a whole mass of problems that lead to a series of 
severe economic declines still felt today. I am sure that there are still 
commentators to be found that say space travel is bunk and although possible, 
not practical, now or ever.


In the 1960s and even 70s there would have been people saying that networked 
computers -- several in every home -- would never happen. Those messing about 
with the concept with their little kits of electronic components making 
something that plays tunes or types a line of text were playing with toys and 
wasting their time. Useful digital technology was strictly for large companies 
and governments to use.


In the early 19th century people experimenting with cars would never live to see
the mass ownership of cars. Their contemporaries would have said that they were
wasting their lives. Horse drawn carriages and later railways were the only way
to go.


If course it is possible to find commentators that say assembler nanotechnology 
is a waste of effort and will never happen. Whether it will really happen is not
a matter of fortune tellers for or against, but the future as is unfolds.

-- 
Sincerely, John de Rivaz:  http://John.deRivaz.com for websites including
Cryonics Europe, Longevity Report, The Venturists, Porthtowan, Alec Harley
Reeves - inventor, Arthur Bowker - potter, de Rivaz genealogy,  Nomad .. and
more

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