X-Message-Number: 33136
From: 
Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2010 13:11:17 -0500 (EST)
Subject: Achievements # 3

"Achievements" might be a bit of a misnomer  for today, since this brief 
discussion might be called partly speculation,  but what the hey. The topic is 
survivability of the cryonics movement, in the  face of recent rampant 
warnings of disaster. I offer some thoughts  pertaining to viability of the 
movement and its two biggest organizations, the  Cryonics Institute (CI) and 
Alcor.
 
 
The speculative reasons for impending disaster  range from merciless 

persecution by authorities or/and ideologues to allegedly  relentless economics.
Specifically, Alcor is said to be on the road to  inexorable and major price 
increases which will outrun the members' life  insurance or ability to pay, 
and CI can't continue to preserve people at  ridiculously low prices. I 
think both arguments are flawed, as  follows.
 
 
As for Alcor, there is much to criticize, but  the overriding fact is that 
they can probably buy themselves out of almost any  situation. Recently, as 
I recall, they received a bequest of $7 million. They  have a passel of rich 
members who would probably pitch in for any emergency. 
 
 
As for CI, according to calculations a couple  of years ago which I believe 
are still appropriate, the MARGINAL cost of a new  patient, projected 
forward, is around $20,000. With minimum funding of $28,000,  CI's cash flow 

therefore increases by around $8,000 or more with each new  patient in the year
of death, and does not go negative thereafter. 
 
 
 
Inflation is a false  bugaboo for CI. For  example, the cost of liquid 

nitrogen, once considered a major ongoing  expense at about $1,000 per year per
patient is now less than $100 per year  per patient in the current 

cryostats.  We have only two full time paid  employees, and their compensation 
is not 
extravagant. Real estate  taxes in  the Detroit area are unlikely to spike 
in the foreseeable future. We don't use  much gas or electricity. Economies 
of scale will steadily help, with average  cost per year per patient 

diminishing over time (yearly overhead divided by  number of patients). We will 
not 
need an additional building to house patients  for quite a while, and if 
there is an unexpectedly large surge in demand our  resources will increase as 
well.
 
 
MARKET SHARE: I think Alcor can continue to  grow at least for a while, if 
they don't raise prices too fast, but CI will  probably grow faster because 
it will get the lion's share of  death-bed  cases, and that will happen just 
because deathbed cases must be funded by cash  on hand, not life insurance. 
 
 
 
Further, probably a considerable number of  people will be influenced by 
the history--never any price increases at CI,  relatively large and frequent 
increases at Alcor. The track record cannot fail  to impress anyone who pays 
attention. 
 
 
As a partial reminder, one of CI's available  plans is a one-time 

membership fee of $1,250 plus a one-time suspension fee of  minimum $28,000 
(plus any 
local help and transportation, which might be a few  thousand depending on 
location). There are no yearly dues or other  fees.
 
 
Alcor demands a minimum of $80,000 for neuro  (head only) and $150.000 for 
whole body, plus yearly dues of $478 per year for  the first family member, 
plus $200 for a membership application, plus other  charges if there is 
delay in application or if the potential member resides  outside the U.S.
 
 
The Suspended Animation herring: Some within  CI advocate buying service 
from Suspended Animation Inc. (SA), at a huge price  increase which would make 
the total comparable to Alcor's, Elsewhere I have explained why I think 

this is a very bad  and unnecessary idea. Any member or small local group, with
a bit of effort and  modest expense, can arrange standby that will be both 
cheaper and faster and  more reliable. This isn't just speculation 

either--it's what Mae and I did when  we lived in Arizona, and it worked very 
well 
when she died. Basically you  just hire local morticians, train them, equip 
them, and pay them an annual  retainer for a yearly practice session. Modest 
expense, quick  response, high reliability, none of which are offered by  SA. 
 
 
 
Rest ye merry, gentle people; let nothing you  dismay.
 
 
Robert Ettinger
 



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